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Here is another look at how bonds are playing out. Yesterday there was an
apparent A-B-C, and that is still the best count in my opinion even though
bonds traded up to the more extreme level for C. However, as is often the
case, there is an alternate count presenting the possibility of bonds
having completed a "5" instead of a three wave A-B-C. The implication is a
pullback and then significantly more rally. I have added the labeling for
the possible five wave structure on the attached chart. I have also put a
fib study (I believe it shows as yellow) with the standard retracements. If
this is a 5 (and I realize it sure isn't a pretty one) , we should have a
correction into probably at least the 50% retracement level prior to the
next rally.
Personally, I don't see a high probability trade and with the strong
possibilty of high volatilty bonds present too much risk at the moment for
this trader! It's just fun trying to draw the map ahead of time.
Regards,
Tom Alexander
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\R_bond1.GIF"
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