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John,
I may be beating a very dead horse and I know that some of these divergent
points of view are not new and unreconcilable. However, some traders are new
and I have learned a thing or two. Most of the forum readers are lurkers
most of the time, that doesn't mean that they aren't interested in these
discussions.
Interesting facts or opinions are unfortunately seldom reveled in casual
conversation about the weather. Its when you get to a sensitive spot that
someone finally tells you where the bear went so to speak. I do hope to
reveal a new idea or two sometimes. It seems to me that just now a little
idea or two of interest has surfaced.
Trading seems a very innocuous pursuit at times but when you peal back the
facade you can find all sorts of nasty things including theft, cheating,
suicide, and all sorts of ruination. Lets not be blind to reality. Traders
must be totally in control of the things that they can control. Traders
should understand that no one but themselves truly has their interest at
heart.
I'd love to hear what you think about using stops within systems sometime.
Every time I have added a stop to any system and back tested it the profits
begin to erode immediately. Employing stops within a system would seem to be
a tricky balancing act. Anyway, thanks for your patience.
Brent
-----Original Message-----
From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, June 28, 1999 12:21 AM
Subject: Do What You Like
>Dear Brent,
>
>It just seems the same people are debating this and there really has
>been nothing but conjecture from some and so called "facts" from the
>pits.The debate is truly endless and been going on for years with each
>side saying the same things.
>
>So do what you like.I have nothing to offer other than some systems do
>better with stops and others have a built in reversal mechanism.I
>would not trade without one or the other.
>
>Good luck on a breakthrough,
>
>John
>
>To whom it may concern:
>
>I would most graciously request that those of you who want to continue
>this discussion do so privately at this point.What more of general
>interest can be said?And yes I and others less vocal could just delete
>but sometimes one loses other messages on the reload.
>
>Reluctantly posted,
>
>John
>
>
>
>------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
>Originally From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: Learn from...
>Date: 06/27/1999 05:45pm
>
>
>
>I don't think that it takes much more complicated than looking at the
>chart
>to tell where the majority of the stops will be hidden.
>
>Stewart.
>
>
>
>At 02:14 PM 6/27/99 -0600, BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>>Not having any actual experience in the pits; I think that there is
>some
>>evidence that the traders there DO have access to information on
>where stops
>>are. Here is some reasons why.
>>
>>A. Somebody has to know what your order is or they couldn't execute
>it.
>>B. The news often has reports that read something like "large numbers
>of
>>stops are
>>expected to be hit just above 111.50".
>>C. Several articles that I have read in publications such as Futures
>>Magazine have said that, traders in the pits have access to
>information
>>where stops are placed.
>>D. Personal experience makes me believe that they know.
>>
>>Now if someone knows for for sure what the truth is, it would be
>>appreciated. It makes sense that even the pit traders don't want to
>go too
>>far out of their range to get stops unless conditions that make for
>extreme
>>volatility are in effect. What I'm getting at is that there is a
>point out
>>there where your stop is going to be safe, at least for today. For
>example;
>>if you are trading Sugar and you are short, you put in a stop at say
>one
>>hundred and fifty dollars and I'd say it was safe for today:-)
>>
>>
>>
>>Brent
>>
>>>I'm sure the locals run the price up and down either following micro
>>>trends themselves or even trying to get the mkt to places where they
>>>believe stops are concentrated, based on the *charts*. But do you
>>>really think they know where the actual orders are? Perhaps this
>isn't
>>>that important a point - if you tend to get stopped out, who cares
>if
>>>it's random noise, or the pit going after your stop specifically?
>But
>>>if it is an ungrounded fear that makes people tend to not put stops
>in,
>>>then I think it's a question worth asking.
>>>
>>>My belief is that in almost all cases (barring some illegal
>activity),
>>>the locals (and off-the-floor daytraders) do not know where the
>orders
>>>are. They simply are trading very short-term, either as trend
>followers
>>>or contra-trend. The trend followers would like to get on board
>>>*before* the trend, so if the market is wandering upwards and they
>think
>>>it could go thru some stops they will buy (and conversely the contra
>>>trend locals will stand aside). This extra buying may actually help
>>>push the mkt thru the stops. (But if it fails to, then the locals
>lose
>>>money.)
>>>
>>>If you are a position trader, maybe the key is to place the stop far
>>>enough away that most times, if it is hit, it signals a true
>reversal
>>>(even if temporary). Most of the time my stops are hit I'm glad
>that I
>>>am out. (I know you really can't separate them, but my problem
>seems to
>>>be more entry selection and profit taking, than stop.)
>>>
>>>Conrad Bowers
>>>
>>
>>
>Stewart Taylor
>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>Voice: 501-219-9774
>Fax: 501-228-0963
>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
>
>
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