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Dear Brent,
It just seems the same people are debating this and there really has
been nothing but conjecture from some and so called "facts" from the
pits.The debate is truly endless and been going on for years with each
side saying the same things.
So do what you like.I have nothing to offer other than some systems do
better with stops and others have a built in reversal mechanism.I
would not trade without one or the other.
Good luck on a breakthrough,
John
To whom it may concern:
I would most graciously request that those of you who want to continue
this discussion do so privately at this point.What more of general
interest can be said?And yes I and others less vocal could just delete
but sometimes one loses other messages on the reload.
Reluctantly posted,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Learn from...
Date: 06/27/1999 05:45pm
I don't think that it takes much more complicated than looking at the
chart
to tell where the majority of the stops will be hidden.
Stewart.
At 02:14 PM 6/27/99 -0600, BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>Not having any actual experience in the pits; I think that there is
some
>evidence that the traders there DO have access to information on
where stops
>are. Here is some reasons why.
>
>A. Somebody has to know what your order is or they couldn't execute
it.
>B. The news often has reports that read something like "large numbers
of
>stops are
>expected to be hit just above 111.50".
>C. Several articles that I have read in publications such as Futures
>Magazine have said that, traders in the pits have access to
information
>where stops are placed.
>D. Personal experience makes me believe that they know.
>
>Now if someone knows for for sure what the truth is, it would be
>appreciated. It makes sense that even the pit traders don't want to
go too
>far out of their range to get stops unless conditions that make for
extreme
>volatility are in effect. What I'm getting at is that there is a
point out
>there where your stop is going to be safe, at least for today. For
example;
>if you are trading Sugar and you are short, you put in a stop at say
one
>hundred and fifty dollars and I'd say it was safe for today:-)
>
>
>
>Brent
>
>>I'm sure the locals run the price up and down either following micro
>>trends themselves or even trying to get the mkt to places where they
>>believe stops are concentrated, based on the *charts*. But do you
>>really think they know where the actual orders are? Perhaps this
isn't
>>that important a point - if you tend to get stopped out, who cares
if
>>it's random noise, or the pit going after your stop specifically?
But
>>if it is an ungrounded fear that makes people tend to not put stops
in,
>>then I think it's a question worth asking.
>>
>>My belief is that in almost all cases (barring some illegal
activity),
>>the locals (and off-the-floor daytraders) do not know where the
orders
>>are. They simply are trading very short-term, either as trend
followers
>>or contra-trend. The trend followers would like to get on board
>>*before* the trend, so if the market is wandering upwards and they
think
>>it could go thru some stops they will buy (and conversely the contra
>>trend locals will stand aside). This extra buying may actually help
>>push the mkt thru the stops. (But if it fails to, then the locals
lose
>>money.)
>>
>>If you are a position trader, maybe the key is to place the stop far
>>enough away that most times, if it is hit, it signals a true
reversal
>>(even if temporary). Most of the time my stops are hit I'm glad
that I
>>am out. (I know you really can't separate them, but my problem
seems to
>>be more entry selection and profit taking, than stop.)
>>
>>Conrad Bowers
>>
>
>
Stewart Taylor
Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
Voice: 501-219-9774
Fax: 501-228-0963
E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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