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The system I use, utilizes stops and trailing stops. Once my entry price is hit
there is an 80% probability of reaching the first price target. Therefore, I
know that 20% of the time my stop will be hit. The majority of times before the
stop is hit I know that I have made a mistake and exit the trade. I also have
an entry in the opposite direction. Have a good week. Ira.
BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> John,
>
> I may be beating a very dead horse and I know that some of these divergent
> points of view are not new and unreconcilable. However, some traders are new
> and I have learned a thing or two. Most of the forum readers are lurkers
> most of the time, that doesn't mean that they aren't interested in these
> discussions.
>
> Interesting facts or opinions are unfortunately seldom reveled in casual
> conversation about the weather. Its when you get to a sensitive spot that
> someone finally tells you where the bear went so to speak. I do hope to
> reveal a new idea or two sometimes. It seems to me that just now a little
> idea or two of interest has surfaced.
>
> Trading seems a very innocuous pursuit at times but when you peal back the
> facade you can find all sorts of nasty things including theft, cheating,
> suicide, and all sorts of ruination. Lets not be blind to reality. Traders
> must be totally in control of the things that they can control. Traders
> should understand that no one but themselves truly has their interest at
> heart.
>
> I'd love to hear what you think about using stops within systems sometime.
> Every time I have added a stop to any system and back tested it the profits
> begin to erode immediately. Employing stops within a system would seem to be
> a tricky balancing act. Anyway, thanks for your patience.
>
> Brent
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, June 28, 1999 12:21 AM
> Subject: Do What You Like
>
> >Dear Brent,
> >
> >It just seems the same people are debating this and there really has
> >been nothing but conjecture from some and so called "facts" from the
> >pits.The debate is truly endless and been going on for years with each
> >side saying the same things.
> >
> >So do what you like.I have nothing to offer other than some systems do
> >better with stops and others have a built in reversal mechanism.I
> >would not trade without one or the other.
> >
> >Good luck on a breakthrough,
> >
> >John
> >
> >To whom it may concern:
> >
> >I would most graciously request that those of you who want to continue
> >this discussion do so privately at this point.What more of general
> >interest can be said?And yes I and others less vocal could just delete
> >but sometimes one loses other messages on the reload.
> >
> >Reluctantly posted,
> >
> >John
> >
> >
> >
> >------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> >Originally From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: Learn from...
> >Date: 06/27/1999 05:45pm
> >
> >
> >
> >I don't think that it takes much more complicated than looking at the
> >chart
> >to tell where the majority of the stops will be hidden.
> >
> >Stewart.
> >
> >
> >
> >At 02:14 PM 6/27/99 -0600, BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> >>Not having any actual experience in the pits; I think that there is
> >some
> >>evidence that the traders there DO have access to information on
> >where stops
> >>are. Here is some reasons why.
> >>
> >>A. Somebody has to know what your order is or they couldn't execute
> >it.
> >>B. The news often has reports that read something like "large numbers
> >of
> >>stops are
> >>expected to be hit just above 111.50".
> >>C. Several articles that I have read in publications such as Futures
> >>Magazine have said that, traders in the pits have access to
> >information
> >>where stops are placed.
> >>D. Personal experience makes me believe that they know.
> >>
> >>Now if someone knows for for sure what the truth is, it would be
> >>appreciated. It makes sense that even the pit traders don't want to
> >go too
> >>far out of their range to get stops unless conditions that make for
> >extreme
> >>volatility are in effect. What I'm getting at is that there is a
> >point out
> >>there where your stop is going to be safe, at least for today. For
> >example;
> >>if you are trading Sugar and you are short, you put in a stop at say
> >one
> >>hundred and fifty dollars and I'd say it was safe for today:-)
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>Brent
> >>
> >>>I'm sure the locals run the price up and down either following micro
> >>>trends themselves or even trying to get the mkt to places where they
> >>>believe stops are concentrated, based on the *charts*. But do you
> >>>really think they know where the actual orders are? Perhaps this
> >isn't
> >>>that important a point - if you tend to get stopped out, who cares
> >if
> >>>it's random noise, or the pit going after your stop specifically?
> >But
> >>>if it is an ungrounded fear that makes people tend to not put stops
> >in,
> >>>then I think it's a question worth asking.
> >>>
> >>>My belief is that in almost all cases (barring some illegal
> >activity),
> >>>the locals (and off-the-floor daytraders) do not know where the
> >orders
> >>>are. They simply are trading very short-term, either as trend
> >followers
> >>>or contra-trend. The trend followers would like to get on board
> >>>*before* the trend, so if the market is wandering upwards and they
> >think
> >>>it could go thru some stops they will buy (and conversely the contra
> >>>trend locals will stand aside). This extra buying may actually help
> >>>push the mkt thru the stops. (But if it fails to, then the locals
> >lose
> >>>money.)
> >>>
> >>>If you are a position trader, maybe the key is to place the stop far
> >>>enough away that most times, if it is hit, it signals a true
> >reversal
> >>>(even if temporary). Most of the time my stops are hit I'm glad
> >that I
> >>>am out. (I know you really can't separate them, but my problem
> >seems to
> >>>be more entry selection and profit taking, than stop.)
> >>>
> >>>Conrad Bowers
> >>>
> >>
> >>
> >Stewart Taylor
> >Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> >Voice: 501-219-9774
> >Fax: 501-228-0963
> >E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> >Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
> >
> >
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