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To whom it may concern:
I would most graciously request that those of you who want to continue
this discussion do so privately at this point.What more of general
interest can be said?And yes I and others less vocal could just delete
but sometimes one loses other messages on the reload.
Reluctantly posted,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Learn from...
Date: 06/27/1999 05:45pm
I don't think that it takes much more complicated than looking at the
chart
to tell where the majority of the stops will be hidden.
Stewart.
At 02:14 PM 6/27/99 -0600, BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>Not having any actual experience in the pits; I think that there is
some
>evidence that the traders there DO have access to information on
where stops
>are. Here is some reasons why.
>
>A. Somebody has to know what your order is or they couldn't execute
it.
>B. The news often has reports that read something like "large numbers
of
>stops are
>expected to be hit just above 111.50".
>C. Several articles that I have read in publications such as Futures
>Magazine have said that, traders in the pits have access to
information
>where stops are placed.
>D. Personal experience makes me believe that they know.
>
>Now if someone knows for for sure what the truth is, it would be
>appreciated. It makes sense that even the pit traders don't want to
go too
>far out of their range to get stops unless conditions that make for
extreme
>volatility are in effect. What I'm getting at is that there is a
point out
>there where your stop is going to be safe, at least for today. For
example;
>if you are trading Sugar and you are short, you put in a stop at say
one
>hundred and fifty dollars and I'd say it was safe for today:-)
>
>
>
>Brent
>
>>I'm sure the locals run the price up and down either following micro
>>trends themselves or even trying to get the mkt to places where they
>>believe stops are concentrated, based on the *charts*. But do you
>>really think they know where the actual orders are? Perhaps this
isn't
>>that important a point - if you tend to get stopped out, who cares
if
>>it's random noise, or the pit going after your stop specifically?
But
>>if it is an ungrounded fear that makes people tend to not put stops
in,
>>then I think it's a question worth asking.
>>
>>My belief is that in almost all cases (barring some illegal
activity),
>>the locals (and off-the-floor daytraders) do not know where the
orders
>>are. They simply are trading very short-term, either as trend
followers
>>or contra-trend. The trend followers would like to get on board
>>*before* the trend, so if the market is wandering upwards and they
think
>>it could go thru some stops they will buy (and conversely the contra
>>trend locals will stand aside). This extra buying may actually help
>>push the mkt thru the stops. (But if it fails to, then the locals
lose
>>money.)
>>
>>If you are a position trader, maybe the key is to place the stop far
>>enough away that most times, if it is hit, it signals a true
reversal
>>(even if temporary). Most of the time my stops are hit I'm glad
that I
>>am out. (I know you really can't separate them, but my problem
seems to
>>be more entry selection and profit taking, than stop.)
>>
>>Conrad Bowers
>>
>
>
Stewart Taylor
Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
Voice: 501-219-9774
Fax: 501-228-0963
E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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