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RT's,
Interesting responses to my S+P post.
First off, I'll just point out that my entry trade at 1361.90 was on Globex
(I don't differentiate between the day and night sessions for price
extremes). It was based on a target at 1362.00, and I always place my orders
1 tick before my targets. Determination of this target was by a method which
is known by several names, including: 123 trading, the TRIDENT strategy,
SYMMETRICAL WAVES, and SWING OBJECTIVES. In fact, it's nothing more than
measuring a previous wave in the same direction, and adding the measured
amount to the last turning point.
In this example, SPU made a low on June 2 at 1290.50, and a high on June 7
at 1352.0. This move was equal to 61.50 points.
The next low was on June 11 at 1300.50. Adding 61.50 points yields a price
objective of 1362.00.
The 1353.40 entry was determined by a different method.
Does that mean 1362.50 is the final high here? Not necessarily, but that
doesn't bother me. I'm laying on a trade which has a big potential profit
and very low risk. If I'm wrong, I'll get stopped out for a small loss. But
if I'm right ....
My trading methodology consists of the following:
1) My own version of Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon (much more precise).
2) My variation of Stan Weinstein's Swing Rule, incorporating some of Bill
WIlliams' Trading Chaos, and Newton's Laws of Motion.
3) Symmetrical waves (or Trident, '123').
4) Fibonacci retracements and expansions.
5) Bollinger bands
All of these factors are simultaneously analyzed on 3 different time frames
(15 minute, 60 minute, and daily bar charts), and I only put on a trade when
everything lines up clearly.
All I'm doing, essentially, is playing the percentages, as my methods and
experience define them. I'm certainly wrong at times, and aggressive risk
management prevents that from being a problem.
Warren
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