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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>During the first hour of trading, if it is
making a strong move, I often exit positions I am trading two or more
days. The pop or drop sometimes is exactly what makes the
profit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>During the day I sometimes jump on news or strong sector
trends. Ex., internet group downturn is often signal to me to enter.
Three times in the last 3 months I made profit on AOL calls entering near the
low point and exiting on the 10 point jump in AOL, CMGI and the rest of the
group. Another example of a strong trend, and a quick one at that, was the
Rubin rumor hour, when the DOW dropped 200 in 20 minutes. I called it a
stupid knee-jerk and bought calls at the bottom, taking money off the table by
end of day.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Don't know much about support, resistance or pivots.
Indicators are often justifications after the fact. The real signal is the
price and volume, revealing the direction and strength of moves. The real
action is behind a curtain. I see the movements of the players in the
flutters of the curtain. The crowd is now moving to buy, now to sell, now
in massive amounts, now barely discernible.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Go with the crowd, but be ready to see when the back-swing is
about to start. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>P.S. I have two computers, one for my day-job and the other
for the stocks and options market.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>R W Stacey <<A
href="mailto:r.w.stacey@xxxxxxxxx";>r.w.stacey@xxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, May 18, 1999 6:54 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>FW: How we trade - I
live to trade<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT size=2>Hi</FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"> </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT size=2>Regards</FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Ray</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Raymond W Stacey [<A
href="mailto:raystacey@xxxxxxxxx";>mailto:raystacey@xxxxxxxxx</A>]
<BR><B>Sent:</B> 18 May 1999 02:47<BR><B>To:</B>
REALTRADERS<BR><B>Subject:</B> How we trade - I live to
trade<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DL>
<DT><SPAN class=300153013-18051999></SPAN><FONT color=#008080><FONT
size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">B<SPAN
class=300153013-18051999>ill Eykyn
wrote....</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT>
<DT><SPAN class=300153013-18051999></SPAN><FONT color=#008080><FONT
size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">What I would really like to know
is exactly how you guys trade, once you<SPAN
class=300153013-18051999> </SPAN>have come to your conclusions. As a
day trader only, I do find this the<SPAN class=300153013-18051999>
</SPAN>interesting part. Do you enter the market on the open? After
the opening<SPAN class=300153013-18051999> </SPAN>range? When? Do
you have to take the night session into account and<SPAN
class=300153013-18051999> </SPAN>could that alter your decision,
anyway? As I see it, each bar is basically<SPAN
class=300153013-18051999> </SPAN></FONT><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">a
day, whereas for me each bar is in
minutes.</FONT></FONT></FONT></DT></DL>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999>As a daytrader on the Bonds my entry and exit
points are determined in a manner totally different from my
intra-day/short term position trading on currencies.</SPAN><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999> The question is interesting to me mainly from
a day-trading point of view. Primarily I work mainly with pivots and the
use of historical support and resistance levels. Use </SPAN><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999>of indicators is</SPAN><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999> li</SPAN><SPAN class=300153013-18051999>mited
to cursory glances at the 3/10 oscillator and the 5 min 20EM</SPAN><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999>A's</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999>Lind</SPAN></FONT><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"><SPAN class=300153013-18051999>a Rasche has opened
some interesting avenues that I would like to explore but it will take a
major revelation to move me into a different approach to my
present.</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"><SPAN
class=300153013-18051999></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT size=2>Regards</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Ray</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 08:01:18 1999
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From: "G.John Boggio" <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
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Realtraders,<br>
<br>
Maybe it is my fault, but as many of you know, the use of
abbreivated subject identifiers was once an idea that we implemented on
this Forum to better direct 'messages of interest' to our members.
Unfortunately, there are just a few who continue to faithfully use these
subject headings. Therefore, in an attempt to better serve the
members of this list, I will again try to instill this request on a more
frequent basis. Further, in addition to sending more frequent
public posts to the Forum, I will also be sending private posts reminding
those who have forgotten. Please don't take it personally, but just
implement it on your next post. Thank you.<br>
<br>
The currnet list of abbreviated subject headings are as follow:
Simply place these letters at the beginning of your 'Subject
Heading'<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size=3>The 8 abbreviations are: <br>
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OPTN = Options <br>
GEN = General TRADING RELATED Q's:Books,Systems,Programs, <br>
DAY = DayTraders <br>
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PSYCH = The Mental Process of Trading <br>
<x-tab> </x-tab>
FOREX = Foreign Exchange Market <br>
<br>
These abbreviations should PRECEDE your title
and should be CAPITALIZED. As an example: <br>
<br>
MKT - Technical Analysis S&P500 15minute 7/15/97 <br>
or <br>
FUTR - Bonds are forming an interesting pattern. <br>
<br>
We will do this in an attempt to assist ALL
members better find posts that they feel will be of most interest to
them. <br>
<br>
</font>Thank again,<br>
John Boggio</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 08:01:21 1999
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<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>I know this has probably been answered
before, but for the memory impaired........</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Where can I find ascii formatted data for
futures that can be downloaded onto a disk? Specifically, I am looking for
day session only T-Bond data.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Thanks in advance for your
help.........</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Tom Stein<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 08:07:41 1999
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Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 11:13:36 -0400
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From: "Lawrence Chan" <stnahc@xxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: GEN: Astro-Finance, Realtraders Survey Results
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> From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
>
> You make these statement and there appears to be little or no truth to
them.
> ***** answers
I thought you do agree most of the points :)
> ****** Each major firm manages several mutual funds and uses this
information
> in that process. The commissions are outrages, but the majority of their
> income doesn't come from commissions. If you use these fundamentals
first as a
> filter then use technicals for timing and measuring the move, you can be
very
> successful.
Managing mutual funds?! that means playing money from someone else and
making
cut no matter they win or loss! it implies the non-believe in their own
research.
Fundamental does not exists - period. Check out the stock Bre-X in Canada
you will know. It run up on brokerage recommendation, and bankrupt on
all fundamentals provided are hoax :)
how can brokerages tell whether the fundamentals are real?
This type of scams happen everyday - do you really think the brokerages
mean what they say on recommendations? if so, is there a money back
guanrantee? All they are doing is to get business - clients trade, they
make money on the commission.
If they are so convinced of their research - they do not need commissions,
they will ask for cut in profits instead, and no charge if it does not
work out :) and BTW, why should there be commission on entry at all!
> >
> > for interest rate and inflation - that affect policy change and in turn
> > affect long term supply and demand on all securities ...
>
> **** No matter what the interest rate climate, some stocks will go up and
> others will go down. You can make money under any interest rate
environment.
> You just have to be able to long or short and trade what you see not what
you
> hear.
totally agree!
>
> >
> > so, the borderline of true cause and effect is quite unclear ...
> > especially when time price series now are known to be chaotic systems
> > already => principle of causation no longer works!
>
> *****I hate to disagree, but time and price are very predictable, I have
> traded that way for a long time, very successfully. Remembers numbers
don't
> lie, but liars use numbers.
I think you do not understand what I mean at all - as you may not know what
chaos systems means. e.g. our weather, when and where will it rain, etc.
So, like weather, for short term forecast of price, it is possible and
the required data is what just happened ... exactly what technical analysis
is trying to do.
But for longer term forecast, you need higher order, longer term, more
detailed information to forecast a bit further into future.
Unlike classical systems - minor change in one variable implies minor
change in results; Chaotic systems have the property of minor change
in one parameter could cause major change in the system.
e.g. a break of a price level (trendline?) will induce tons of buyers
or sellers. for classical system, it does not make sense at all when
price = x, you got no buyer and at price = x + 0.0001, you got tons
of buyers!
So, you did not disagree, but just do not understand what it means :)
-Lawrence Chan
p.s. I do not think I am a great trader, but do make a living, for a long
time.
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