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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hope you faired better on crude than I did! I even gave the
stop a few extra ticks but they nailed it. The inside day at critical price/time
is usually pretty good odds but obviously not infallible. Given the momentum in
crude, 5/5 in crude may be about as fruitful as picking 5/5 in
s&p</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:OnWingsofEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=OnWingsofEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Gitanshu Buch</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 05, 1999 6:56
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> FUT: June Crude and
Astrology</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Night session Crude is down 21 cents ($210 per
contract) from Tusday close. I have a feeling this dump is just
beginning.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Congratulations are in order to Norman Winski,
who once again has nailed the turn date (refer his Neptune turns
retrograde May 6 email) well in advance - in this case for Crude
oil.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For the non-astrology buffs, in June/July Crude,
June/July Heat and July Gasoline going into 5/5 trading we have:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>- an Inside Day</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>- the narrowest range of the past 4
days</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>- historical volatility under 50% of
mean</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 05 13:44:23 1999
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 15:01:14 -0400
Reply-To: jsibley@xxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Jonathan Sibley <jsibley@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds " message - Give her a
little break
In-Reply-To: <373093BA.17E208E4@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Listen, clearly English is not Edelina's native language, so at least give
her a break if she makes some grammatical, spelling, and vocabulary mistakes.
Ask yourself if you could write as much in a foreign language, whether the
content is "right" or "wrong".
I certainly won't agree with her assessment, but I can understand what she
means, and if I want to correct her English, I'll do it offline.
Thanks.
Jonathan Sibley
At 11:53 AM 5/5/99 -0700, Norman E. Phair wrote:
>
>suddenly after 7 days the market is prevised to be @top
>
>this is a little bit undigestible !!! even as a
>prevision.
>
>7 days without any major unprevisible EVENT cannot
>change
>drastic the price.
>
>............................................................................
>...........................
>
>Edelina:
>
>When you are playing the market one can change their
>mind when they want to. I have a long term money
>manager who trades mutual funds for me. Yes, even
>though I was in "this business" for over 35 years. He
>went long in December 1994. A few days later he sold
>out on Thursday, bought back 50% on Friday and the
>balance on Monday. He stayed long until now with 2
>round term trades in-between.
>
>It takes a disciplined person to be able to admit he
>was wrong and switch direction. That is what my MM did
>(Terry Laundry) . That is what Earl did. You should
>be thanking him not lambasting him.
>
>How many brokers that put you in a stock would call you
>up 7 days later and tell you to sell at a loss?
>Verrrrrrrrrrrrry few.
>
>I do not think "this investors" (who ever you think
>that is ) would be buying at the 1379 top you
>mentioned. If he had been following Earl they would
>already be long. It would not be YOU because you trade
>futures.
>
>Your quote "medium poor investor" is a little
>confusing. Is he medium done
>as in cooked? If he is poor he should be working, no
>internet and put his meager saving in mutual funds.
>
>You said " I have been loosing money exactly because of
>such extremes previsions." Previsions is not an
>english language word. My email to you to get a
>clarification went unanswered. I think you mean
>something like
>predictions.
>
>TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OWN ACTIONS. You are not
>paying Earl, do your own work. I have said and many
>others have said on here, making money trading is hard
>work. If you have an idea and Earl agrees you can
>follow your nose. Earl and everyone else on here is
>doing us a big favor with their comments and opinions.
>Not everyone contributes. I guess because they have
>discovered the HG and do not want to share it.
>HaHAHaHaHa..
>
>I understand you subscribe to many web pages. How many
>of these did you lambaste when they were wrong.
>
>You said seven days without a major EVENT. I assume
>you mean news.
>I could write a term paper on that statement.
>
>1. I believe Earl is a technician, technicians do not
>usually factor news into their analysis.
>2. I do not read financial news of any kind because
>you can not believe most of it and what you
>may like to believe is probably bs. ( I could
>write an essay on this)
>3. Technicians let the market tell them what to do.
>This is a simplified statement to a complex subject.
> 4. Technicians may watch the markets reaction to
>news and trade opposite to the move created by the
>news. I.E.: Buy on bad news, sell on good news.
>
>In closing , TG, I think you should be thankful that
>Earl gives you his comments FREE. I have dedicated a
>file folder in my mail folder as of today to Earl' s
>pearls of wisdom. I will continue to learn until they
>hammer in the last nail and I will post my meager
>comments when I get a flash.
>
>
>Norman E. .
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>
>> I think the word you wanted is "refer" rather than
>> "refere". This is the second time you have composed
>> such a message and used my name in the subject. This
>> is not the kind of message which contributes to a
>> positive environment for the exchange of ideas. I
>> suggest that the next time you feel compelled to
>> compose such a message that you press the <Delete>
>> button instead of the <Send> button. Had you taken
>> the time to carefully read my most recent post
>> instead of firing up a message reply, you would have
>> found there is no such inconsistency. I expect the
>> equity markets to go considerably higher in spite of
>> some technicals. "Technical work still points to
>> 117-118 area into mid-May. While I have
>> indications of a top in equities, I don't think this
>> market is going to just
>> fade away, I think it is going to go out in a
>> spectacle of fireworks which
>> we have yet to see. And when the day does come,
>> treasuries and foreign
>> currencies may offer some opportunities." I trade
>> futures for a living and use mutual funds for
>> investment. I follow the markets where they lead - I
>> never fight the tape. However, I have no hesitation
>> to stand aside when the markets do not fit my trading
>> or investment style. I have made no secret of the
>> fact that I consider the US equity markets vastly
>> overvalued and very dangerous. This does not mean
>> they will not go higher - I continue to expect that
>> the S&P will come close to the 1600 area and have
>> said as much since the S&P was in the 1000 (many here
>> will remember my historical S&P channel chart dating
>> from the 1920's). I have made no secret of the fact
>> that while I continue to trade the S&P futures both
>> long and short, my investment accounts have been out
>> of US equities. It was last fall when all the talking
>> heads were panning Asia that I first indicated I was
>> making a major long term commitments to Asia based
>> mutual funds because I felt they offered tremendous
>> risk/reward opportunities (up over 50%). I
>> subsequently followed up with an analysis of the
>> Nikkei and indicated that the Yen should bear
>> watching for signs of a decline against the dollar.
>> Earlier this year (when the talking heads said oil
>> was going to $8 a barrel) I suggested that energy
>> funds appeared to offer significant opportunities (up
>> over 80%) and about six weeks ago I indicated that my
>> XAU system had issued a rare buy (up 27% in a month).
>> About a month ago I indicated that I thought bonds
>> had bottomed and that I had made a major commitment
>> to long term bond positions, however I reversed
>> course quickly (0.4% loss) when the bond market
>> failed to follow through, then indicated bonds would
>> likely break to 117-118 area well before the bond
>> market reversed a few days ago. Some months ago I
>> posted several days worth of futures trades, complete
>> with detailed technical analysis, in real-time which
>> turned out a very nice profit on two out of three
>> trades in just a few days. In summary, I'm far from
>> infallible, however I do rather nicely without taking
>> much risk and I support my own trades and investments
>> with my own analysis. I've had spells of S&P trading
>> where as many as 70% of my trades have been wrong but
>> have made still made money by controlling losses
>> tightly and letting the winners run. I always have a
>> benchmark which indicates when my analysis is wrong
>> and don't hesitate to reverse course. Nor do I
>> hesitate to disagree with the conventional wisdom of
>> the talking heads. I contribute more than raw
>> opinions here, I post charts and analysis. I do so,
>> not for compensation, but in the hope of helping
>> others in the same manner as others have helped me. I
>> make no claims to infallibility and those who read
>> what I post should perform their own analysis. What I
>> don't post here are any "holy grail" indicators or
>> systems because there are none. The only group (and
>> it is a very large one) with which I take strong
>> exception are those who believe that they can be
>> successful traders or investors without understanding
>> the markets. Those who believe that success lies in
>> some combination of hardware/software, some black box
>> system, some guru, or some chat room will ultimately
>> have their collective clocks cleaned! Earl
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Edelina
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
>> Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 1999 3:00 PM
>> Subject: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds
>> " message
>> dear earl adamy, I respect your work.but
>> it is better you send few messages and
>> specially those which not contraryone the
>> other in a laps of 7 days. one week ago the
>> sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an
>> explosion to the 1400-1600area..... now in
>> your last message . you telling that you
>> see a top in equities.and as a good
>> politician you keep changing from equity to
>> the bond market. My GOD if only I have the
>> courage to tell peoples my previsionsall of
>> them will become rich .but I am still
>> without courage.and I am keeping to wonder
>> peoples like you who have even the courage
>> towrite contrarian messages. I understand
>> that every one has and is free to express
>> his prevision on the market.BUT he must
>> take care of contrarian previsions very
>> often. PLEASE refere to the message with
>> title JUNE BONDS.
>>
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