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<DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I think the word you wanted is "refer" rather than "refere".
This is the second time you have composed such a message and used my name in the
subject. This is not the kind of message which contributes to a positive
environment for the exchange of ideas. I suggest that the next time you feel
compelled to compose such a message that you press the <Delete> button
instead of the <Send> button. </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2>Had you taken the
time to carefully read my most recent post instead of firing up a
message reply, you would have found there is no such inconsistency. I expect the
equity markets to go considerably higher in spite of some technicals.
</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><EM>"<FONT size=2></EM><EM>Technical work still points to
117-118 area into mid-May. While I have<BR>indications of a top in equities, I
don't think this market is going to just<BR>fade away, I think it is going to go
out in a spectacle of fireworks which<BR>we have yet to see. And when the day
does come, treasuries and foreign<BR>currencies may offer some
opportunities."</EM></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I trade futures for a living and use mutual funds for
investment. I follow the markets where they lead - I never fight the tape.
However, I have no hesitation to stand aside when the markets do not fit my
trading or investment style. I have made no secret of the fact that I consider
the US equity markets vastly overvalued and very dangerous. This does not
mean they will not go higher - I continue to expect that the S&P
will come close to the 1600 area and have said as much since the S&P was in
the 1000 (many here will remember my historical S&P channel chart dating
from the 1920's). I have made no secret of the fact that while I continue
to trade the S&P futures both long and short, my investment accounts have
been out of US equities. It was last fall when all the talking heads were
panning Asia that I first indicated I was making a major long term
commitments to Asia based mutual funds because I felt they offered tremendous
risk/reward opportunities (up over 50%). I subsequently followed up with an
analysis of the Nikkei and indicated that the Yen should bear watching for signs
of a decline against the dollar. Earlier this year (when the talking heads said
oil was going to $8 a barrel) I suggested that energy funds appeared to
offer significant opportunities (up over 80%) and about six weeks ago I
indicated that my XAU system had issued a rare buy (up 27% in a month). About a
month ago I indicated that I thought bonds had bottomed and that I had made a
major commitment to long term bond positions, however I reversed course quickly
(0.4% loss) when the bond market failed to follow through, then indicated bonds
would likely break to 117-118 area well before the bond market reversed a few
days ago. Some months ago I posted several days worth of futures trades,
complete with detailed technical analysis, in real-time which turned out a very
nice profit on two out of three trades in just a few days. In summary, I'm far
from infallible, however I do rather nicely without taking much risk and I
support my own trades and investments with my own analysis. I've had spells of
S&P trading where as many as 70% of my trades have been wrong but have made
still made money by controlling losses tightly and letting the winners
run. I always have a benchmark which indicates when my analysis is wrong
and don't hesitate to reverse course. Nor do I hesitate to disagree with the
conventional wisdom of the talking heads.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I contribute more than raw opinions here, I post charts and
analysis. I do so, not for compensation, but in the hope of helping others in
the same manner as others have helped me. I make no claims to infallibility and
those who read what I post should perform their own analysis. What I don't post
here are any "holy grail" indicators or systems because there are none. The only
group (and it is a very large one) with which I take strong exception are those
who believe that they can be successful traders or investors
without understanding the markets. Those who believe that success lies in
some combination of hardware/software, some black box system, some guru, or
some chat room will ultimately have their collective clocks
cleaned!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Edelina
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 04, 1999 3:00 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> I refere to earl adamy "june
bonds " message</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>dear earl adamy,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I respect your work. </DIV>
<DIV>but it is better you send few messages and specially those which not
contrary </DIV>
<DIV>one the other in a laps of 7 days.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>one week ago the sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an explosion to
the 1400-1600</DIV>
<DIV>area..... now in your last message . you telling that you see a top in
equities.</DIV>
<DIV>and as a good politician you keep changing from equity to the bond
market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My GOD if only I have the courage to tell peoples my previsions </DIV>
<DIV>all of them will become rich .</DIV>
<DIV>but I am still without courage.</DIV>
<DIV>and I am keeping to wonder peoples like you who have even the courage
to</DIV>
<DIV>write contrarian messages.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I understand that every one has and is free to express his prevision on
the market.</DIV>
<DIV>BUT he must take care of contrarian previsions very often.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PLEASE refere to the message with title JUNE
BONDS.</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 05 07:20:48 1999
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 10:03:37 -0400
Reply-To: jsibley@xxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Jonathan Sibley <jsibley@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds " message
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On a more gentle note, this is all part of an education. We can learn the
easy way (on second thought, maybe there is no easy way), or the hard way.
But we all have to keep learning.
One of the things we tend to learn sooner or later is that winning at this
game isn't always easy, and it's certainly not as easy as following
someone's advice and/or forecasts. But we can learn about the process of
how others view the market.
Unfortunately, this can be an expensive education, at times. When you read
anybody's opinion about anything, I think you should assume a number of
caveats along the lines of "this is my opinion at this time, do not trade
based on my opinion, etc., etc., whether stated or not). It's much more
valuable to see others' opinions and to decide for oneself which ones seem
more valuable and how to interpret them, than to forego those opinions
entirely.
As many have learned, it can also be extremely expensive not to changes
one's opinions (and positions) quickly enough.
Jonathan Sibley
At 08:46 AM 5/5/99 -0500, Stewart Taylor wrote:
>
>I've watched Earl contribute to these lists for a long time and doing a
>danged good job of it. I've been trading for 17 years and done
>institutional consulting and trading for 14 years... I always tell my
>clients that you better be man/woman enough to change your opinion when the
>price/volume behaviors dictate that you should change your opinion.
>
>Frankly, I find Earls comments relevant and educational. If you lost money
>on any trade or opinion garnered from a news group or list... shame on you.
> Do you homework, use the posts on the lists to gain some knowledge.... and
>most of all.. before you begin to bitch and moan that someone wasn't
>right.... contribute at least one damn thing yourself.
>
>
>At 04:25 AM 5/5/99 +0200, Edelina wrote:
>>once you are a shrt time trader .
>>you have to be able to switch every day from BUY/SELL or every hour.
>>BUT I am sorry to tell you that in a laps of 7 days you cannot change your
>>point of view from the market explosion to 1500-1600
>>to the market now @top.!
>>
>>Extremists are not aloud to give previsions .
>>such extremists previsions can let fall peoples in attrap.
>>if a stupid innocent ( perhaps also poor ) investor read the message from
>>earl adamy.
>>last week ... this investor will buy the market@xxxx exactly at the top.
>>
>>and if this ( medium poor investor ) has probleme to log with his computer
>>to
>>read again earl adamy... and abby cohany this poor guy might loose money
>>from
>>1379... and it is more probable that he will loose ......
>>
>>I been loosing money exactly because of such extremes previsions.
>>because those who brings those extremes previsions have also
>>the capability to write things extremely influencing.
>>
>>so what do you think?
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Must be able to change your point of view
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: <duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx>
>>Sent: Mittwoch, 5. Mai 1999 14:55
>>Subject: Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds " message
>>
>>
>>>Edelina -
>>>
>>>Gotta disagree w/what you wrote. The way to trade the market is to let
>>>the market tell you what it is going to do. If the market changes, you
>>>must change your opinion. I've flip-flopped in the same day.
>>>
>>>Steve
>>>
>>>> Edelina wrote:
>>>>
>>>> dear earl adamy,
>>>>
>>>> I respect your work.
>>>> but it is better you send few messages and specially those which not
>>>> contrary
>>>> one the other in a laps of 7 days.
>>>>
>>>> one week ago the sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an explosion to
>>>> the 1400-1600
>>>> area..... now in your last message . you telling that you see a top in
>>>> equities.
>>>> and as a good politician you keep changing from equity to the bond
>>>> market.
>>>>
>>>> My GOD if only I have the courage to tell peoples my previsions
>>>> all of them will become rich .
>>>> but I am still without courage.
>>>> and I am keeping to wonder peoples like you who have even the courage
>>>> to
>>>> write contrarian messages.
>>>>
>>>> I understand that every one has and is free to express his prevision
>>>> on the market.
>>>> BUT he must take care of contrarian previsions very often.
>>>>
>>>> PLEASE refere to the message with title JUNE BONDS.
>>>
>>>--
>>>Steven W. Poser, President
>>>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>>>http://www.poserglobal.com
>>>
>>>Tel: 201-995-0845
>>>Fax: 201-995-0846
>>>Email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: Randall Reed <TickerRLR@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Sent: Mittwoch, 5. Mai 1999 14:43
>>Subject: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds " message
>>
>>
>>>Message text written by INTERNET:duis.abn@xxxxxxxxx
>>>>one the other in a laps of 7 days.
>>>
>>>one week ago the sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an explosion to the
>>>1400-1600
>>>area..... now in your last message . you telling that you see a top in
>>>equities.
>>>and as a good politician you keep changing from equity to the bond market.
>>>
>>>My GOD if only I have the courage to tell peoples my previsions
>>>all of them will become rich .
>>>but I am still without courage.
>>>and I am keeping to wonder peoples like you who have even the courage to
>>>write contrarian messages.
>>>
>>>I understand that every one has and is free to express his prevision on the
>>>market.
>>>BUT he must take care of contrarian previsions very often.
>>>
>>>PLEASE refere to the message with title JUNE BONDS.
>>><
>>>
>>>_________________________________________________________
>>>
>>>The markets dynamics can change on a heartbeat. Earl is wise enough to
>>>change his outlook just as quickly. It's called "split-second flexiblity"
>>>.........something all good traders aquire. Earl and others are kind
>>>enough to share each change as they see it develope. Don't limit yourself
>>>to "one thought - one direction". Watch instead, the multitude of
>>>"previsions" and the reversals that take place in these posted messages.
>>>You learn to appreciate those who have the guts to react to change and post
>>>their new "prevision".
>>>
>>>Just my thoughts.
>>>
>>>Randy
>>>
>>
>>
>Stewart Taylor
>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>Voice: 501-219-9774
>Fax: 501-228-0963
>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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