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suddenly after 7 days the market is prevised to be @top
this is a little bit undigestible !!! even as a
prevision.
7 days without any major unprevisible EVENT cannot
change
drastic the price.
.......................................................................................................
Edelina:
When you are playing the market one can change their
mind when they want to. I have a long term money
manager who trades mutual funds for me. Yes, even
though I was in "this business" for over 35 years. He
went long in December 1994. A few days later he sold
out on Thursday, bought back 50% on Friday and the
balance on Monday. He stayed long until now with 2
round term trades in-between.
It takes a disciplined person to be able to admit he
was wrong and switch direction. That is what my MM did
(Terry Laundry) . That is what Earl did. You should
be thanking him not lambasting him.
How many brokers that put you in a stock would call you
up 7 days later and tell you to sell at a loss?
Verrrrrrrrrrrrry few.
I do not think "this investors" (who ever you think
that is ) would be buying at the 1379 top you
mentioned. If he had been following Earl they would
already be long. It would not be YOU because you trade
futures.
Your quote "medium poor investor" is a little
confusing. Is he medium done
as in cooked? If he is poor he should be working, no
internet and put his meager saving in mutual funds.
You said " I have been loosing money exactly because of
such extremes previsions." Previsions is not an
english language word. My email to you to get a
clarification went unanswered. I think you mean
something like
predictions.
TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OWN ACTIONS. You are not
paying Earl, do your own work. I have said and many
others have said on here, making money trading is hard
work. If you have an idea and Earl agrees you can
follow your nose. Earl and everyone else on here is
doing us a big favor with their comments and opinions.
Not everyone contributes. I guess because they have
discovered the HG and do not want to share it.
HaHAHaHaHa..
I understand you subscribe to many web pages. How many
of these did you lambaste when they were wrong.
You said seven days without a major EVENT. I assume
you mean news.
I could write a term paper on that statement.
1. I believe Earl is a technician, technicians do not
usually factor news into their analysis.
2. I do not read financial news of any kind because
you can not believe most of it and what you
may like to believe is probably bs. ( I could
write an essay on this)
3. Technicians let the market tell them what to do.
This is a simplified statement to a complex subject.
4. Technicians may watch the markets reaction to
news and trade opposite to the move created by the
news. I.E.: Buy on bad news, sell on good news.
In closing , TG, I think you should be thankful that
Earl gives you his comments FREE. I have dedicated a
file folder in my mail folder as of today to Earl' s
pearls of wisdom. I will continue to learn until they
hammer in the last nail and I will post my meager
comments when I get a flash.
Norman E. .
Earl Adamy wrote:
> I think the word you wanted is "refer" rather than
> "refere". This is the second time you have composed
> such a message and used my name in the subject. This
> is not the kind of message which contributes to a
> positive environment for the exchange of ideas. I
> suggest that the next time you feel compelled to
> compose such a message that you press the <Delete>
> button instead of the <Send> button. Had you taken
> the time to carefully read my most recent post
> instead of firing up a message reply, you would have
> found there is no such inconsistency. I expect the
> equity markets to go considerably higher in spite of
> some technicals. "Technical work still points to
> 117-118 area into mid-May. While I have
> indications of a top in equities, I don't think this
> market is going to just
> fade away, I think it is going to go out in a
> spectacle of fireworks which
> we have yet to see. And when the day does come,
> treasuries and foreign
> currencies may offer some opportunities." I trade
> futures for a living and use mutual funds for
> investment. I follow the markets where they lead - I
> never fight the tape. However, I have no hesitation
> to stand aside when the markets do not fit my trading
> or investment style. I have made no secret of the
> fact that I consider the US equity markets vastly
> overvalued and very dangerous. This does not mean
> they will not go higher - I continue to expect that
> the S&P will come close to the 1600 area and have
> said as much since the S&P was in the 1000 (many here
> will remember my historical S&P channel chart dating
> from the 1920's). I have made no secret of the fact
> that while I continue to trade the S&P futures both
> long and short, my investment accounts have been out
> of US equities. It was last fall when all the talking
> heads were panning Asia that I first indicated I was
> making a major long term commitments to Asia based
> mutual funds because I felt they offered tremendous
> risk/reward opportunities (up over 50%). I
> subsequently followed up with an analysis of the
> Nikkei and indicated that the Yen should bear
> watching for signs of a decline against the dollar.
> Earlier this year (when the talking heads said oil
> was going to $8 a barrel) I suggested that energy
> funds appeared to offer significant opportunities (up
> over 80%) and about six weeks ago I indicated that my
> XAU system had issued a rare buy (up 27% in a month).
> About a month ago I indicated that I thought bonds
> had bottomed and that I had made a major commitment
> to long term bond positions, however I reversed
> course quickly (0.4% loss) when the bond market
> failed to follow through, then indicated bonds would
> likely break to 117-118 area well before the bond
> market reversed a few days ago. Some months ago I
> posted several days worth of futures trades, complete
> with detailed technical analysis, in real-time which
> turned out a very nice profit on two out of three
> trades in just a few days. In summary, I'm far from
> infallible, however I do rather nicely without taking
> much risk and I support my own trades and investments
> with my own analysis. I've had spells of S&P trading
> where as many as 70% of my trades have been wrong but
> have made still made money by controlling losses
> tightly and letting the winners run. I always have a
> benchmark which indicates when my analysis is wrong
> and don't hesitate to reverse course. Nor do I
> hesitate to disagree with the conventional wisdom of
> the talking heads. I contribute more than raw
> opinions here, I post charts and analysis. I do so,
> not for compensation, but in the hope of helping
> others in the same manner as others have helped me. I
> make no claims to infallibility and those who read
> what I post should perform their own analysis. What I
> don't post here are any "holy grail" indicators or
> systems because there are none. The only group (and
> it is a very large one) with which I take strong
> exception are those who believe that they can be
> successful traders or investors without understanding
> the markets. Those who believe that success lies in
> some combination of hardware/software, some black box
> system, some guru, or some chat room will ultimately
> have their collective clocks cleaned! Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Edelina
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 1999 3:00 PM
> Subject: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds
> " message
> dear earl adamy, I respect your work.but
> it is better you send few messages and
> specially those which not contraryone the
> other in a laps of 7 days. one week ago the
> sp500 was 1372 and you were prevising an
> explosion to the 1400-1600area..... now in
> your last message . you telling that you
> see a top in equities.and as a good
> politician you keep changing from equity to
> the bond market. My GOD if only I have the
> courage to tell peoples my previsionsall of
> them will become rich .but I am still
> without courage.and I am keeping to wonder
> peoples like you who have even the courage
> towrite contrarian messages. I understand
> that every one has and is free to express
> his prevision on the market.BUT he must
> take care of contrarian previsions very
> often. PLEASE refere to the message with
> title JUNE BONDS.
>
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