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----- Original Message -----
From: <JER3CUBE@xxxxxxx>
To: <mufa@xxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 18, 1999 5:22 AM
Subject: Re: Crash Index Follow-up
GerryB writes:
> The index was designed for use with Funds. It gets you out of the market
in high risk periods.
The probability of correct definition (prediction) of the market high risk
periods based on a coin toss test is 1/2. That doesn't mean we should use
such a prediction tool.
Unfortunately in the mentioned report nothing was said about probability of
the Pitbull Crash Index NOT DETECT HIGH RISK PERIODS.
Anna
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