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Dear Anna and Others,
I believe the last 10 to 12 years are the most relevant and that is
where I derived my statistic.Even if one takes the backtesting to a
time when the market dynamics may not have recognized the pitbull
parameters,it is still better to me to be in cash for a period and
assess since these things only take up to 3 months on average to
delineate.
Sorry if you disagree,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Anna Mufa" <mufa@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Crash Index Follow-up
Date: 04/17/1999 08:43pm
Hi John,
I can not agree with you.
In a Special Report http://wwfn.com/commentary/pcisignals.html was
mentioned:
>This is a very effective monitor of market internals that can show
situations setting up that should >raise the investor's awareness and
allow
them to take some precautionary actions until the all-clear >is
sounded. ...
>It was back tested over 25 years of data, starting in 1960, and since
1980
has signaled 11 times >and been WRONG 6 TIMES....
As far as I understand the statistics of back testing Pitbull Crash
Index
shows that accuracy of Index prediction is less than 50% (May be "Yes"
or
may be "No").
Any comments?
Anna
----- Original Message -----
From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, April 17, 1999 11:52 PM
Subject: Crash Index Follow-up
> Check www.pitbull.com and click Crash Index.It has been 80% or more
> accurate.
>
> John
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