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In a message dated 4/17/99 8:53:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, mufa@xxxxxxx
writes:
<<
As far as I understand the statistics of back testing Pitbull Crash Index
shows that accuracy of Index prediction is less than 50% (May be "Yes" or
may be "No").
>>
If it were only 40 % accurate and you missed the 1987 crash
you were ahead of the game. The reason is simple. When it
gave the next Buy signal, you had cash and were able to reenter
Mutual Funds at a relative low.
The index was designed for use with Funds. It gets you out
of the market in high risk periods. You exit the first time it
records a -10...that week. You do not reenter until it records
an "all clear" +6...that week.
Nothing in perfect. Cash has never gone out of style.
It currently draws 4%, whereas since the first of the year
through March 31st, the NYSE was only up 1%.
That is a 3% advantage for Money Funds.
Ignore at your own peril.
All the best,
GerryB
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