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<DIV>Ira scolded me a little last night for not knowing what I wanted my
indicators to do. I puffed up and got a little hurt, but an hour later I
was back at my desk and grateful. He was right! This morning, for the
first time in a long time, this caterpillar feels like she might actually turn
into a butterfly.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>What I like about the displaced moving average is the ability to create a
little distance and therefore ignore some of the noise. An uptrend is
better contained. It signals an earlier entry. I would be using it more as
an specific entry signal into a trade set-up I'd already spotted, only if my 3
timeframe charts concur. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>By displacing it forward it seems to become a late exit signal. So I
am looking for another exit signal, and I'll start with fib support and
resistance. This is the backbone of my methodology, as it exists so far
and I plan to exit on my targets. (Good plan, huh?!) I also like momentum
indicators and can see using one to tell me when a stock trend has decelerated
and then begun to accelerate in the opposite direction. This could confirm
resistance.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm also very aware of risk : reward ratio and have gotten some good advice
from some on pyramiding a trade that is going my way. Stops and money
management will be foremost. As Paul Szilassy says, "Every trade is not
the end-all and be-all"!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've decided my personality is better suited for swing trading and plenty
of research to find the right set-up. Joe's brain test says I'm not
exactly spontaneous! </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I still have a long way to go. I'll find some of this is flawed and
begin again. Norm reminded me to trade small and perfect my
technique. I'll sleep better this way.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thanks again to one and all!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Linda</DIV>
<DIV><BR>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR>Climb
the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into you as sunshine
into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you & storms their
energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 -
1914</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Earl Adamy <<A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx";>eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, April 13, 1999 11:29 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: moving
average<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Linda is using Joe DiNapoli's technique of
displacing moving averages forward e.g. 3 period displayed 3 bars forward ...
same technique upon which I performed testing. The one place that JD's DMA
technique did backtest reasonably well, with some additional requirements not
set forth in JD's material relating to the relative positions of the DMA
during cross-overs (and which I no longer remember in detail), is in
identifying a high proportion of successful "double repo"
reversals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Ira <ist@xxxxxx><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, April 13, 1999 11:03 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: moving
average<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>Displacing them forward just accentuates the
error. Ira.
<P>charles meyer wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE"> <FONT color=#000000><FONT
size=-1>Ira:</FONT></FONT> <FONT size=-1>Aren't we discussing two
different concepts on DMA's? To wit that Hursttalks about shifting
them back 1/2 cycle whereas Earl is referencing theidea of displacing them
forward? Maybe I'm just confused.</FONT> <FONT size=-1>Chas</FONT>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><B><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>-----Original Message-----</FONT></FONT></B>
<BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>From: </B>Ira <<A
href="mailto:ist@xxxxxx";>ist@xxxxxx</A>></FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>To: </B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>Date: </B>Tuesday, April 13, 1999
10:25 AM</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>Subject:
</B>Re: moving average</FONT></FONT> <BR> Hurst's book on time
cycles uses displaced moving averages and proves that they work.
He also uses them to project price movement. That also
works. There are certain flaws, but I will let you find those for
yourselves. Ira.
<P>Earl Adamy wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE"> <FONT color=#000000><FONT size=-1>Don't
want to throw cold water on your parade, but have you developed
evidence that displaced moving averages work? Your mileage may vary,
but my own back testing of a variety of lengths and displacements
indicated to me that they provide no objective contribution. Like you,
I've read and used DiNapoli's techniques and know he uses DMA's,
however I have never been able to find any published material which
indicate DMA's provide a statistically valid trading advantage. Robert
Krause does employ a stair-stepped 3 day DMA of highs and lows for
stop and reversal which (like DiNapoli's DMA's) look good on charts,
however I've never backtested the concept and most of the available
software is unable to produce a stair-stepped value without extensive
custom programming. Personally, I would suggest that examination of
the pattern of the pivots and bars can provide more useful information
than a DMA.</FONT></FONT> <FONT size=-1>Earl</FONT>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><B><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>-----Original
Message-----</FONT></FONT></B> <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1><B>From: </B>Linda Swope <<A
href="mailto:lswope@xxxxxxxxxxx";>lswope@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>></FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>To: </B>RealTraders Discussion
Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><B>Date: </B>Monday, April 12,
1999 9:26 PM</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1><B>Subject: </B>Gen: moving average</FONT></FONT>
<BR> Perhaps my thinking is flawed and I'm counting on you all
to tell me if it is. I'm fond of displaced moving
averages. It makes sense to me that if using the average as an
entry signal for a long position, that one would use an average of
the highs as opposed to the commonly used close. If one is waiting
for a breakout or proof of a trend, then stock price breaking above
the average of highs seems a better indication than breaking above
the average of closes. Conversely, an average of lows would be
used for a short signal. Comments? Thanks,Linda <A
href="mailto:linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
<BR>Climb the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will
flow into you as sunshine into flower; the winds will blow their
freshness into you & storms their energy, & cares will drop
off you like autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 -
1914</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Reply-To: tinyeung@xxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Mervin Yeung <tinyeung@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: moving averages cross over
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Hi RTs,
Most people use moving averages cross over system (MA) to catch trends.
The problem is that moving averages cross over system generates trading
signals even when there is a trading range. That is the reason I don't
like MA. Breakout system is better in this aspect because breakout
system only generates signals when the price is out of the range. Any
comments?
Mervin
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