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<DIV> Hi Linda,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> I'm not shure I agree with your
premise. If you imagine each bar as a struggle between the bulls (buyers)
and the bears (sellers), the close determines the winners during that
round. In other words if the bar closes near the low the sellers had more
power, especially if the close is below the open and vice versa on the up
side. The close of a daily bar is especially important, since this is
where many professional traders settle there accounts.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
Good luck and good trading,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
Ray Raffurty</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Linda Swope
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 12, 1999 11:27
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Gen: moving average</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Perhaps my thinking is flawed and I'm counting on you all to tell me if
it is. I'm fond of displaced moving averages. It makes sense to me
that if using the average as an entry signal for a long position, that
one would use an average of the highs as opposed to the commonly used
close. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If one is waiting for a breakout or proof of a trend, then stock price
breaking above the average of highs seems a better indication than breaking
above the average of closes. Conversely, an average of lows would be
used for a short signal. Comments?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thanks,</DIV>
<DIV>Linda</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR>Climb
the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into you as
sunshine into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you &
storms their energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves. John
Muir 1838 - 1914</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 13 08:28:32 1999
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Date: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 08:17:48 -0700
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From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: question about stops
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It appears that you are subconsciously utilizing a time cycle. If
you are exiting on the fourth bar, I would guess that you are looking at
a cycle of ~8 bars . Have a good day. Ira
<p>Earl Adamy wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE> <font color="#000000"><font size=-1>Immediately
is probably a stretch, but I've found that no matter what time frame I'm
day/position trading, a trade which does not move my way within a few bars
is probably going to end up going against me. As a general guideline (not
rule), I use 4 bars or out - not sure where I picked that up, may have
been DiNapoli. Generally, once I start hoping that the trade is not going
to go for my stop, it generally does. It's a guideline rather than a rule
for me because the circumstances and entry will vary from trade to trade
e.g. a trade off a reversal needs to explode my way while I tend to be
a bit more patient on entry into consolidation of an existing trend.</font></font> <font size=-1>Earl</font>
<blockquote
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><b><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>-----Original
Message-----</font></font></b>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>From: </b>Linda Swope <lswope@xxxxxxxxxxx></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>To: </b>RealTraders Discussion
Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>Date: </b>Sunday, April 11, 1999
1:19 PM</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>Subject: </b>Gen: question about
stops</font></font>
<br> Is anyone trading whereby the trade must prove itself immediately
or you're out? I've tried super tight stops and,yes, I kept getting
stopped out immediately. I've tried generous support as stops and
it blew right through. I want to take into account some market noise,
but if I think I just bought into a change of trend (after a small retracement)
and the trend doesn't prove itself, how quick should I get out? As
I read price more than indicators, sometimes my gut says bail, but my stop
is sitting on a logical support level. Do I follow my gut and bail
rather than take the hit my methodology is about to deliver me? Comments
please. Thanks!Linda linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<br>Climb the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into
you as sunshine into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you
& storms their energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves.
John Muir 1838 - 1914 </blockquote>
</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 13 10:21:14 1999
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Date: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 08:20:38 -0700
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From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: moving average
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Hurst's book on time cycles uses displaced moving averages and proves that
they work. He also uses them to project price movement. That
also works. There are certain flaws, but I will let you find those
for yourselves. Ira.
<p>Earl Adamy wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE> <font color="#000000"><font size=-1>Don't want
to throw cold water on your parade, but have you developed evidence that
displaced moving averages work? Your mileage may vary, but my own back
testing of a variety of lengths and displacements indicated to me that
they provide no objective contribution. Like you, I've read and used DiNapoli's
techniques and know he uses DMA's, however I have never been able to find
any published material which indicate DMA's provide a statistically valid
trading advantage. Robert Krause does employ a stair-stepped 3 day DMA
of highs and lows for stop and reversal which (like DiNapoli's DMA's) look
good on charts, however I've never backtested the concept and most of the
available software is unable to produce a stair-stepped value without extensive
custom programming. Personally, I would suggest that examination of the
pattern of the pivots and bars can provide more useful information than
a DMA.</font></font> <font size=-1>Earl</font>
<blockquote
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><b><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>-----Original
Message-----</font></font></b>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>From: </b>Linda Swope <lswope@xxxxxxxxxxx></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>To: </b>RealTraders Discussion
Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>Date: </b>Monday, April 12, 1999
9:26 PM</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1><b>Subject: </b>Gen: moving average</font></font>
<br> Perhaps my thinking is flawed and I'm counting on you all to
tell me if it is. I'm fond of displaced moving averages. It
makes sense to me that if using the average as an entry signal for a long
position, that one would use an average of the highs as opposed to the
commonly used close. If one is waiting for a breakout or proof of
a trend, then stock price breaking above the average of highs seems a better
indication than breaking above the average of closes. Conversely,
an average of lows would be used for a short signal. Comments? Thanks,Linda linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<br>Climb the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into
you as sunshine into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you
& storms their energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves.
John Muir 1838 - 1914 </blockquote>
</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 13 10:21:23 1999
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Date: Tue, 13 Apr 1999 10:41:27 -0500
Reply-To: RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Bob Hunt <RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Gen: moving average
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Linda,
The way that I approach indicator construction and use involves, first
of all, getting rid of the notion that one needs to find the ultimate
indicator or the ultimate setting or set of parameters for each
indicator used. Indicators are nothing more than a convenient means of
creating structure out of an inherently unstructured environment. From
that perspective, I think what one needs to do is to experiment . .
try different settings and see which one best creates the kind of
market structure that you want to work with - that best fits your
personality. There's really no right or wrong answer. It boils down to
what works best for your purposes and your personality.
Seeking the advice of others is a good way to get started. But I would
suggest that such advice needs to be evaluated with a very critical
eye. A common technique that I use when evaluating a new indicator or
method for day trading the bonds is to print several months worth of
five minute charts, one chart to a page, with the appropriate
indicators applied. I then step through each day, making notes on
appropriate setups and how they might have been traded. It's a
painstaking process, but a necessary one. Only with that kind of
stringent evaluation can you truly trade that new technique with
confidence.
In regards to moving averages, I realize that you trade principally
stocks, but my vehicle of choice is T-Bond futures. For T-Bonds, I've
found that the 20 EMAs of the 5, 15, 30, 60, and 120 minute time
periods can provide significant support and resistance levels. But
even more valuable than a straight moving average is a derivative
called the 3/10 oscillator. With the aid of this oscillator, the
trader can generally isolate those swing pivots that have the
potential for carry through from those that don't.
For example, in just this morning's trading, a setup occurred that
might have duped the unwary into initiating a long entry (attached 5
min. bond chart). The early morning bounce off of the 122-28 swing
pivot low looked very convincing . . . a U-Turn pattern with a strong
upward thrust. But the Momentum Confirmation coming from the 3/10
oscillator implied further downside potential. Those traders armed
with this information were able to avoid taking the long entry, and
instead, patiently waited for a short set up. That set up occurred a
little later at the 123-05 DP level. Which, as of the time that I am
writing this reply, has so far resulted in a 22 tick profit ($688 per
contract), with the potential for even more in the offing.
The path to understanding successful trading techniques starts with an
understanding of price behavior. You cannot understand price behavior
until you learn to create structure out of an inherently unstructured
environment. But, when all is said and done, the heart of the matter
really boils down to what works best for you, and your trading
personality. The advice of others can give you food for thought, but a
true integration of those concepts can only be discovered through a
stringent process of trial and error.
Bob Hunt
THE T-BOND DAY TRADING REPORT
E-Mail: RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Web Site: http://home.att.net/~rhunt.066/main.html
--------------------------------------------------------------
> Linda Swope wrote:
>
> Perhaps my thinking is flawed and I'm counting on you all to tell me
> if it is. I'm fond of displaced moving averages. It makes sense to
> me that if using the average as an entry signal for a long position,
> that one would use an average of the highs as opposed to the
> commonly used close.
>
> If one is waiting for a breakout or proof of a trend, then stock
> price breaking above the average of highs seems a better indication
> than breaking above the average of closes. Conversely, an average
> of lows would be used for a short signal. Comments?
>
> Thanks,
> Linda
>
> linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Climb the mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into
> you as sunshine into flower; the winds will blow their freshness
> into you & storms their energy, & cares will drop off you like
> autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 - 1914
>
>
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