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I must agree with Ira.......
Market movements are completely non-linear......what that means is that any
particular event will NOT necessarily have the same, consistent effect upon
market prices each time it occurs.
Why is that...............
Market prices are a reflection of the psychological outlook of its
participants.
Thus any methodology that uses anything other than the market patterns
themselves will eventually be deemed unreliable.
For example.....I hear fund managers on CNBC crying because they own what
they describe as value plays and they can not understand why they had very
little return last year.....the market participants at this time do not care
about value.....they are interested in momentum.....momentum is a function
of the market itself.....thus those momentum players are just following the
market.....AND making money....which is the purpose of trading........
Tom Stein
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