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I think a review of history will show that in all of recorded market data that
events never changed the direction of the markets for more then a day or two.
Take the Dow, the S&P or any other index and check back in time. You will find
that the wars, assassinations, market prognosticators Predictions of doom or any
other event did not stop an up market from going up or a down market from
continuing to fall. The only answer seems to be that when it is time, it will
happen and not before. The longer it waits to happen, the more violent the
move. Then there is always the 3% factor that can come and "slap you up beside
the head". Take care and watch your stops for but for a couple of limit moves
poverty can be just around the corner. (so can retirement if you are on the
right side), Ira.
BruceB wrote:
> I think what "isn't right" is the impeachment proceedings. The dollar has
> been dropping ever since the the prospects for a censure deal began to dim.
> Recent history shows that the smart money perceives any weakness in the
> dollar to represent a flight from US investments. The strong bullish
> momentum in bonds got stopped in its tracks as soon as the dollar turned
> south.
>
> Stewart is right that the recent fundamental info for bonds has been very
> bullish. Market fear can win in the short run, but fundamentals will always
> win in the long run. I think all this noise is just setting up a more
> powerful bull move in bonds as soon as the impeachment proceedings are
> resolved one way or another.
>
> Of course, when that will be is anyone's guess...
>
> Bruce
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 10:14 AM
> Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
>
> >Sure is. You've been well out front on this one, it only remains to be seen
> >how it all shakes out. I am, however taking the bond situation seriously
> >enough to shift investment positions into the shorter end of the yield
> >curve. Long term I still think rates may head down but something just isn't
> >right here and I'm not going to fight it.
> >
> >Earl
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
> >To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion Group
> ><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 7:47 AM
> >Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
> >
> >
> >>Bonds haven't reacted very well to a ton of promising fundamental junk...
> >>good numbers, huge weakness in the CRB index and industrial materials
> >>(Crude) and much weaker shares. I have seldom made a lot of money bucking
> >>the commodities trend when trading bonds so I am having a lot of trouble
> >>taking more than swing or trading turn shorts, but the poor reaction to
> >>very good news is a clear problem.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>Stewart Taylor
> >>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> >>Voice: 501-219-9774
> >>Fax: 501-228-0963
> >>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> >>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
> >
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