|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
The bonds are perplexing but are still bullish. I know, how low can interest
rates go and when the commodities turn and wages rise look out. All this is
true, but the numbers at this time don't bear that out. The short term goal of
129-18 was just missed with the next low projection at 129-04. In order for
the bonds to turn bearish it would require them to hit 128-17. If that
happened then there would be an 80% probability of the bonds going to 126+/- a
couple of ticks. That still would not take out the previous lows for a truly
bearish scenario. Until then the shorter term charts offer a good opportunity
to trade the short legs up and down. Ira
Earl Adamy wrote:
> Sure is. You've been well out front on this one, it only remains to be seen
> how it all shakes out. I am, however taking the bond situation seriously
> enough to shift investment positions into the shorter end of the yield
> curve. Long term I still think rates may head down but something just isn't
> right here and I'm not going to fight it.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
> To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion Group
> <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 7:47 AM
> Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
>
> >Bonds haven't reacted very well to a ton of promising fundamental junk...
> >good numbers, huge weakness in the CRB index and industrial materials
> >(Crude) and much weaker shares. I have seldom made a lot of money bucking
> >the commodities trend when trading bonds so I am having a lot of trouble
> >taking more than swing or trading turn shorts, but the poor reaction to
> >very good news is a clear problem.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >Stewart Taylor
> >Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> >Voice: 501-219-9774
> >Fax: 501-228-0963
> >E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> >Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
|