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Ira,
I think the rate cut on 15-October changed it. The market at that point
was merely in a correction of a medium term down trend. Furthermore,
though we have no way of knowing, I think we were set to get crushed for
a run down toward 6800 dow if the fed had not gone. Greenspan has all
but admitted that he uses technical analysis, and the charts sucked.
Ira wrote:
>
> I think a review of history will show that in all of recorded market data that
> events never changed the direction of the markets for more then a day or two.
> Take the Dow, the S&P or any other index and check back in time. You will find
> that the wars, assassinations, market prognosticators Predictions of doom or any
> other event did not stop an up market from going up or a down market from
> continuing to fall. The only answer seems to be that when it is time, it will
> happen and not before. The longer it waits to happen, the more violent the
> move. Then there is always the 3% factor that can come and "slap you up beside
> the head". Take care and watch your stops for but for a couple of limit moves
> poverty can be just around the corner. (so can retirement if you are on the
> right side), Ira.
>
> BruceB wrote:
>
> > I think what "isn't right" is the impeachment proceedings. The dollar has
> > been dropping ever since the the prospects for a censure deal began to dim.
> > Recent history shows that the smart money perceives any weakness in the
> > dollar to represent a flight from US investments. The strong bullish
> > momentum in bonds got stopped in its tracks as soon as the dollar turned
> > south.
> >
> > Stewart is right that the recent fundamental info for bonds has been very
> > bullish. Market fear can win in the short run, but fundamentals will always
> > win in the long run. I think all this noise is just setting up a more
> > powerful bull move in bonds as soon as the impeachment proceedings are
> > resolved one way or another.
> >
> > Of course, when that will be is anyone's guess...
> >
> > Bruce
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 10:14 AM
> > Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
> >
> > >Sure is. You've been well out front on this one, it only remains to be seen
> > >how it all shakes out. I am, however taking the bond situation seriously
> > >enough to shift investment positions into the shorter end of the yield
> > >curve. Long term I still think rates may head down but something just isn't
> > >right here and I'm not going to fight it.
> > >
> > >Earl
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
> > >To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion Group
> > ><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 7:47 AM
> > >Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
> > >
> > >
> > >>Bonds haven't reacted very well to a ton of promising fundamental junk...
> > >>good numbers, huge weakness in the CRB index and industrial materials
> > >>(Crude) and much weaker shares. I have seldom made a lot of money bucking
> > >>the commodities trend when trading bonds so I am having a lot of trouble
> > >>taking more than swing or trading turn shorts, but the poor reaction to
> > >>very good news is a clear problem.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>Stewart Taylor
> > >>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> > >>Voice: 501-219-9774
> > >>Fax: 501-228-0963
> > >>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> > >>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
> > >
--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
Email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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