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Sorry I missed it. TV is behind me and I had sound down most of the morning
while trading. Usual lot of talking heads after SB are FA's touting favorite
stocks so I don't usually miss much. So where are bond and dollar going?
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:50 PM
Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>Earl -
>
>No disagreement from me at all. All I am looking ofr is a correction and
>then range trading with a shot at the old highs even before any larger
>problems might develop. On CNBC, I said there were significant
>differences in market psyche, etc too so though the pattern was similar,
>what got us there was not. Actually, the interview was more focused on
>the dollar and bonds anyway.
>
>Steve
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>>
>> While there is a lot of price similarity, I think one of the major
>> differences between the two periods is the much better breadth in this
>> rally. While a any new high in this rally will not be (immediately)
>> confirmed, we have already confirmed vs the prior Sept pivot high and
would
>> stand a decent chance of confirming new highs within a reasonable period
>> following the breakout. Certainly this rally is extended and has returned
>> the S&P to extreme valuations as measured by the TBill/EarningsRatio.
Just
>> leaving open the possibility that we may have a short correction and then
>> move higher. I know that even during declines of past couple of days,
I've
>> been more successful on the long side than the short.
>>
>> Earl
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:08 PM
>> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>>
>> >Twas I.
>> >As for the "wedge" formation, I had said on CNBC it was not a real good
>> >"wedge" in the classic sense since we were right at the apex. The main
>> >thing I was pointing out, which I alluded to yesterday on realtraders,
>> >was the similarity between the 8-Oct to current pattern with the
>> >mid-June to 20-July pattern. Both were questionable wedges and about the
>> >same number of days.
>> >
>> >I am not calling for a collapse like we saw in July (though in some ways
>> >I think that the equity markets are more frothy now than they were
>> >then). Just was trying to point out that stocks were overdue for a
>> >correction and that it could be a good sized one. It might be starting
>> >now as I write this in fact....
>> >
>> >Steve Poser
>> >
>> >dbtg wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Saw the last part of STEVE POSER's interview on CNBC. Assuming this
>> >> is the same STEVE POSER on this group :))... could you elaborate on
the
>> >> SP wedge formation shown?
>> >>
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 9:14 AM
>> >> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>> >>
>> >> >Good Morning RTs -
>> >> >
>> >> >Yesterday was the 3rd trading day following a full moon... and the
>> market
>> >> moved down. This move up has run 22 trading days and its time for a
>> >> reversal. If the close today on the cash SPX is less than 1121 will
>> take a
>> >> short positon with a stop of 1138 and a downside target in the range
of
>> a
>> >> close 1020-1060 .
>> >> >
>> >> >Steve
>> >> >
>> >> >>>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/05 4:24 PM >>>
>> >> >Follow up... yet another new 3-day high. My short was not triggered.
>> >> Short
>> >> >term oscillator is very over bot. Friday is the second day
following
>> the
>> >> full
>> >> >moon. Will keep waiting.
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >> RTs -
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Follow up.... Downside SPX cash target area is 1020-1050. SPX
>> fututres
>> >> >are off 6.00 as I write this. Will go short on the close if below
1105.
>> >> Stop at
>> >> >1115. Acceptable risk/reward of approx 3:1.
>> >> >> If downside move develops and performs as targeted, this will
confirm
>> a
>> >> >change in trend from bear to bull.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Steve
>> >> >>
>> >> >> >>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/04/98 04:15PM >>>
>> >> >> RT's
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I have been looking for a top in the 1128 SPX area. I arrived at
this
>> by
>> >> >> taking the July top of 1191 less the August low of 939 or 252
points *
>> >> 75%
>> >> >for
>> >> >> 189 points. Add this to the August low of 939 to get 1128 on the
SPX.
>> >> >> Today the cash SPX made a high of 1127.18 before closing lower on
the
>> >> >> day. Today is Nov 4, which is a full moon and much has been
written
>> in
>> >> >this
>> >> >> forum of the market declines which often accompany a full moon.
>> >> >> Additionally, Gann wrote that there is often a CIT in early
November
>> >> during
>> >> >> election years. I will be watching my short term indicators to
>> initiate
>> >> a short
>> >> >> position. I have not calculated my target low based on today's
price
>> >> action
>> >> >> however using yesterday's I get a downside target of 1015-1050
using
>> >> >Gann
>> >> >> Angles and 1030-1055 using an Andrews calculation.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Steve
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > !
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >> !
>> >> >
>> >> !
>> >> >
>> >> >
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