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Earl -
No disagreement from me at all. All I am looking ofr is a correction and
then range trading with a shot at the old highs even before any larger
problems might develop. On CNBC, I said there were significant
differences in market psyche, etc too so though the pattern was similar,
what got us there was not. Actually, the interview was more focused on
the dollar and bonds anyway.
Steve
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> While there is a lot of price similarity, I think one of the major
> differences between the two periods is the much better breadth in this
> rally. While a any new high in this rally will not be (immediately)
> confirmed, we have already confirmed vs the prior Sept pivot high and would
> stand a decent chance of confirming new highs within a reasonable period
> following the breakout. Certainly this rally is extended and has returned
> the S&P to extreme valuations as measured by the TBill/EarningsRatio. Just
> leaving open the possibility that we may have a short correction and then
> move higher. I know that even during declines of past couple of days, I've
> been more successful on the long side than the short.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:08 PM
> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>
> >Twas I.
> >As for the "wedge" formation, I had said on CNBC it was not a real good
> >"wedge" in the classic sense since we were right at the apex. The main
> >thing I was pointing out, which I alluded to yesterday on realtraders,
> >was the similarity between the 8-Oct to current pattern with the
> >mid-June to 20-July pattern. Both were questionable wedges and about the
> >same number of days.
> >
> >I am not calling for a collapse like we saw in July (though in some ways
> >I think that the equity markets are more frothy now than they were
> >then). Just was trying to point out that stocks were overdue for a
> >correction and that it could be a good sized one. It might be starting
> >now as I write this in fact....
> >
> >Steve Poser
> >
> >dbtg wrote:
> >>
> >> Saw the last part of STEVE POSER's interview on CNBC. Assuming this
> >> is the same STEVE POSER on this group :))... could you elaborate on the
> >> SP wedge formation shown?
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 9:14 AM
> >> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
> >>
> >> >Good Morning RTs -
> >> >
> >> >Yesterday was the 3rd trading day following a full moon... and the
> market
> >> moved down. This move up has run 22 trading days and its time for a
> >> reversal. If the close today on the cash SPX is less than 1121 will
> take a
> >> short positon with a stop of 1138 and a downside target in the range of
> a
> >> close 1020-1060 .
> >> >
> >> >Steve
> >> >
> >> >>>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/05 4:24 PM >>>
> >> >Follow up... yet another new 3-day high. My short was not triggered.
> >> Short
> >> >term oscillator is very over bot. Friday is the second day following
> the
> >> full
> >> >moon. Will keep waiting.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >> RTs -
> >> >>
> >> >> Follow up.... Downside SPX cash target area is 1020-1050. SPX
> fututres
> >> >are off 6.00 as I write this. Will go short on the close if below 1105.
> >> Stop at
> >> >1115. Acceptable risk/reward of approx 3:1.
> >> >> If downside move develops and performs as targeted, this will confirm
> a
> >> >change in trend from bear to bull.
> >> >>
> >> >> Steve
> >> >>
> >> >> >>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/04/98 04:15PM >>>
> >> >> RT's
> >> >>
> >> >> I have been looking for a top in the 1128 SPX area. I arrived at this
> by
> >> >> taking the July top of 1191 less the August low of 939 or 252 points *
> >> 75%
> >> >for
> >> >> 189 points. Add this to the August low of 939 to get 1128 on the SPX.
> >> >> Today the cash SPX made a high of 1127.18 before closing lower on the
> >> >> day. Today is Nov 4, which is a full moon and much has been written
> in
> >> >this
> >> >> forum of the market declines which often accompany a full moon.
> >> >> Additionally, Gann wrote that there is often a CIT in early November
> >> during
> >> >> election years. I will be watching my short term indicators to
> initiate
> >> a short
> >> >> position. I have not calculated my target low based on today's price
> >> action
> >> >> however using yesterday's I get a downside target of 1015-1050 using
> >> >Gann
> >> >> Angles and 1030-1055 using an Andrews calculation.
> >> >>
> >> >> Steve
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > !
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >> !
> >> >
> >> !
> >> >
> >> >
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