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Was looking for dollar to run into resistance in 122.90/123.40 range
against yen, but see room for rally into 127 area if stocks do not get
hit hard first. See low 1.70s providing good resistance for now against
DEM. Said that bonds could rally another 25 bps or so (as of yesterday).
Can see futures trading even back to 130/131 area over next couple weeks
but ultimately see run into low-120s dec basis.
Steve
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> Sorry I missed it. TV is behind me and I had sound down most of the morning
> while trading. Usual lot of talking heads after SB are FA's touting favorite
> stocks so I don't usually miss much. So where are bond and dollar going?
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:50 PM
> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>
> >Earl -
> >
> >No disagreement from me at all. All I am looking ofr is a correction and
> >then range trading with a shot at the old highs even before any larger
> >problems might develop. On CNBC, I said there were significant
> >differences in market psyche, etc too so though the pattern was similar,
> >what got us there was not. Actually, the interview was more focused on
> >the dollar and bonds anyway.
> >
> >Steve
> >
> >Earl Adamy wrote:
> >>
> >> While there is a lot of price similarity, I think one of the major
> >> differences between the two periods is the much better breadth in this
> >> rally. While a any new high in this rally will not be (immediately)
> >> confirmed, we have already confirmed vs the prior Sept pivot high and
> would
> >> stand a decent chance of confirming new highs within a reasonable period
> >> following the breakout. Certainly this rally is extended and has returned
> >> the S&P to extreme valuations as measured by the TBill/EarningsRatio.
> Just
> >> leaving open the possibility that we may have a short correction and then
> >> move higher. I know that even during declines of past couple of days,
> I've
> >> been more successful on the long side than the short.
> >>
> >> Earl
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:08 PM
> >> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
> >>
> >> >Twas I.
> >> >As for the "wedge" formation, I had said on CNBC it was not a real good
> >> >"wedge" in the classic sense since we were right at the apex. The main
> >> >thing I was pointing out, which I alluded to yesterday on realtraders,
> >> >was the similarity between the 8-Oct to current pattern with the
> >> >mid-June to 20-July pattern. Both were questionable wedges and about the
> >> >same number of days.
> >> >
> >> >I am not calling for a collapse like we saw in July (though in some ways
> >> >I think that the equity markets are more frothy now than they were
> >> >then). Just was trying to point out that stocks were overdue for a
> >> >correction and that it could be a good sized one. It might be starting
> >> >now as I write this in fact....
> >> >
> >> >Steve Poser
> >> >
> >> >dbtg wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> Saw the last part of STEVE POSER's interview on CNBC. Assuming this
> >> >> is the same STEVE POSER on this group :))... could you elaborate on
> the
> >> >> SP wedge formation shown?
> >> >>
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 9:14 AM
> >> >> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
> >> >>
> >> >> >Good Morning RTs -
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Yesterday was the 3rd trading day following a full moon... and the
> >> market
> >> >> moved down. This move up has run 22 trading days and its time for a
> >> >> reversal. If the close today on the cash SPX is less than 1121 will
> >> take a
> >> >> short positon with a stop of 1138 and a downside target in the range
> of
> >> a
> >> >> close 1020-1060 .
> >> >> >
> >> >> >Steve
> >> >> >
> >> >> >>>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/05 4:24 PM >>>
> >> >> >Follow up... yet another new 3-day high. My short was not triggered.
> >> >> Short
> >> >> >term oscillator is very over bot. Friday is the second day
> following
> >> the
> >> >> full
> >> >> >moon. Will keep waiting.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >> RTs -
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Follow up.... Downside SPX cash target area is 1020-1050. SPX
> >> fututres
> >> >> >are off 6.00 as I write this. Will go short on the close if below
> 1105.
> >> >> Stop at
> >> >> >1115. Acceptable risk/reward of approx 3:1.
> >> >> >> If downside move develops and performs as targeted, this will
> confirm
> >> a
> >> >> >change in trend from bear to bull.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Steve
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/04/98 04:15PM >>>
> >> >> >> RT's
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> I have been looking for a top in the 1128 SPX area. I arrived at
> this
> >> by
> >> >> >> taking the July top of 1191 less the August low of 939 or 252
> points *
> >> >> 75%
> >> >> >for
> >> >> >> 189 points. Add this to the August low of 939 to get 1128 on the
> SPX.
> >> >> >> Today the cash SPX made a high of 1127.18 before closing lower on
> the
> >> >> >> day. Today is Nov 4, which is a full moon and much has been
> written
> >> in
> >> >> >this
> >> >> >> forum of the market declines which often accompany a full moon.
> >> >> >> Additionally, Gann wrote that there is often a CIT in early
> November
> >> >> during
> >> >> >> election years. I will be watching my short term indicators to
> >> initiate
> >> >> a short
> >> >> >> position. I have not calculated my target low based on today's
> price
> >> >> action
> >> >> >> however using yesterday's I get a downside target of 1015-1050
> using
> >> >> >Gann
> >> >> >> Angles and 1030-1055 using an Andrews calculation.
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Steve
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> > !
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >>
> >> >> !
> >> >> >
> >> >> !
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
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