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While there is a lot of price similarity, I think one of the major
differences between the two periods is the much better breadth in this
rally. While a any new high in this rally will not be (immediately)
confirmed, we have already confirmed vs the prior Sept pivot high and would
stand a decent chance of confirming new highs within a reasonable period
following the breakout. Certainly this rally is extended and has returned
the S&P to extreme valuations as measured by the TBill/EarningsRatio. Just
leaving open the possibility that we may have a short correction and then
move higher. I know that even during declines of past couple of days, I've
been more successful on the long side than the short.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 1:08 PM
Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>Twas I.
>As for the "wedge" formation, I had said on CNBC it was not a real good
>"wedge" in the classic sense since we were right at the apex. The main
>thing I was pointing out, which I alluded to yesterday on realtraders,
>was the similarity between the 8-Oct to current pattern with the
>mid-June to 20-July pattern. Both were questionable wedges and about the
>same number of days.
>
>I am not calling for a collapse like we saw in July (though in some ways
>I think that the equity markets are more frothy now than they were
>then). Just was trying to point out that stocks were overdue for a
>correction and that it could be a good sized one. It might be starting
>now as I write this in fact....
>
>Steve Poser
>
>dbtg wrote:
>>
>> Saw the last part of STEVE POSER's interview on CNBC. Assuming this
>> is the same STEVE POSER on this group :))... could you elaborate on the
>> SP wedge formation shown?
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Tuesday, November 10, 1998 9:14 AM
>> Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market -
>>
>> >Good Morning RTs -
>> >
>> >Yesterday was the 3rd trading day following a full moon... and the
market
>> moved down. This move up has run 22 trading days and its time for a
>> reversal. If the close today on the cash SPX is less than 1121 will
take a
>> short positon with a stop of 1138 and a downside target in the range of
a
>> close 1020-1060 .
>> >
>> >Steve
>> >
>> >>>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/05 4:24 PM >>>
>> >Follow up... yet another new 3-day high. My short was not triggered.
>> Short
>> >term oscillator is very over bot. Friday is the second day following
the
>> full
>> >moon. Will keep waiting.
>> >
>> >
>> >> RTs -
>> >>
>> >> Follow up.... Downside SPX cash target area is 1020-1050. SPX
fututres
>> >are off 6.00 as I write this. Will go short on the close if below 1105.
>> Stop at
>> >1115. Acceptable risk/reward of approx 3:1.
>> >> If downside move develops and performs as targeted, this will confirm
a
>> >change in trend from bear to bull.
>> >>
>> >> Steve
>> >>
>> >> >>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/04/98 04:15PM >>>
>> >> RT's
>> >>
>> >> I have been looking for a top in the 1128 SPX area. I arrived at this
by
>> >> taking the July top of 1191 less the August low of 939 or 252 points *
>> 75%
>> >for
>> >> 189 points. Add this to the August low of 939 to get 1128 on the SPX.
>> >> Today the cash SPX made a high of 1127.18 before closing lower on the
>> >> day. Today is Nov 4, which is a full moon and much has been written
in
>> >this
>> >> forum of the market declines which often accompany a full moon.
>> >> Additionally, Gann wrote that there is often a CIT in early November
>> during
>> >> election years. I will be watching my short term indicators to
initiate
>> a short
>> >> position. I have not calculated my target low based on today's price
>> action
>> >> however using yesterday's I get a downside target of 1015-1050 using
>> >Gann
>> >> Angles and 1030-1055 using an Andrews calculation.
>> >>
>> >> Steve
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > !
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>> !
>> >
>> !
>> >
>> >
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