|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
There is evidence that some direct manipulation ha taken place in S&P
futures this month
see for instance:
Bill Fleckenstein column on "www.stocksite.com,
James Pradinha on www.street.com,
James Davidson on www.strategicinvestment.com
John Crudele on the New York Post (do not remember the day) quoting retired
FED officials
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the London Telegraph
Steve Briese who analizes COT data in his "bullish review" has noted that
in september commercials
have bought S&P futures on the way up instead of scaling down as usual and
has guessed that
some institutions bought futures for the New York FED
If there is a direct political interest in keeping the market up before the
elections (even if the pollsters
say it is only 2 or 3 percentage points it might be worth it)
and if technically the NY FED can do it easily through the Exchange
Stabilization Fund and going through some major brokers
WHY NOT ?
Politician have done much worse
>Brent -
>
>I am not wearing rose colored glasses. I am amazed that somebody
>obviously as intelligent as you can believe that there is overt
>manipulation of the markets. Yes, the markets are manipulated via
>playing with our minds. Alan Greenspan plays the markets like Yitzhak
>Perlman plays a Stradivarius. As for Presidential cycles, the ground
>work is done without purchases of stocks. It is done by spending
>increases in your congressional district and by doing all the things
>that the electorate wants.
>
>Those involved with the street are very ego centric about the street.
>While the stock market is more important than it used to be because it
>is more widely held, a stock market drop really does not turn the
>economy. Look at 1987. True, the market rebounded, but it stayed below
>the 1987 highs for over a year. Everybody thought that the economy would
>sink, but sound monetary and fiscal policy saved the day (more monetary
>than fiscal since Reagan had the IQ of a retarded squirrel, and even if
>he was a genius the Congress had the summed IQ of a retarded squirrel).
>
>Yes, the markets are manipulated, but only through our minds via the
>policies of the Fed and the government. Not by the government purchasing
>stocks. They do it in Japan and Hong Kong, but this is neither.
>
>I AM NOT GOING TO RESPOND ANY MORE TO THESE POSTS. I DID THE ONE THIS
>MORNING DURING A MOMENT OF WEAKNESS. AS A BRILLIANT MEMBER OF THIS GROUP
>SENT TO ME, I WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE THOSE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO
>BELIEVE THIS CRAP, AND I WILL NOT LET MYSELF GET SUCKERED INTO REACTING
>TO THESE GENERAL POSTS AGAIN. (Brent - this is not aimed at you
>directly.) IF YOU WANT TO BELIEVE THIS STUFF, GREAT. HAVE FUN. IT IS A
>MATTER OF FAITH. Good luck and good trades to all.
>
>Steve
>
>
>BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>>
>> Ah come-on Steve take off your rose colored glasses. Can you honestly tell
>> me that there has never been efforts to manipulate the markets? Although I
>> don't expect that I will convince you of anything; as I have gotten older I
>> have realized that Murphy's law applies to all sorts of manipulations. It
>> sometimes takes 40 years to find out but it happens all the same and allthe
>> time.
>>
>> It would be naivete to not allow for the possibility of manipulation in the
>> markets there certainly has been manipulation in the past. A strong rally
>> just before an election (in which a beleaguered President has much to lose)
>> that began with a mighty shove from the fed would seem to be some evidence
>> to me. Unless congress investigates we will likely never know. Since
history
>> is replete with plots, manipulation and conspiracies, I will not disallow
>> the possibility.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Saturday, October 31, 1998 8:48 AM
>> Subject: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC
>>
>> >I am constantly amazed at what people will believe. What I love best
>> >about folks that believe in conspiracy theories, that the Fed buys
>> >futures (Earl, though I disagree with you on the futures purchase stuff,
>> >you are obviously not in the idiot category.)
>> >
>> >Alan Greenspan is the consummate market behaviorist and technical
>> >analyst. I am not suggesting that he sits there and draws lines, looks
>> >at OBV and RSI. But, he may be the only Central Banker in the world who
>> >understands how to mollify the markets. I wrote to my clients back
>> >before the first rate cut that the Fed would go again between meetings
>> >if they only went 25 bps on 29-Sep. I made this call based on how I
>> >thought the markets would react, and how I figured Greenspan would react
>> >to that. The day that the Fed cut again, was the first time I saw
>> >inklings of the market getting ready to turn lower. I think if the Fed
>> >had not cut then, we'd be at 6800 now and not 8600.
>> >
>> >Alan Greenspan almost certainly has no great love for Bill Clinton.
>> >Clinton is a Democrat and Greenspan is a Republican. So, Alan is not
>> >saving Bill. He is not saving a Republican Congress either that sits
>> >there and asks for rate cuts also when the economy is humming along. The
>> >FED is and must be fiercely independent.
>> >
>> >LOOK WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A CENTRAL BANK IS BELIEVED TO BE CONTROLLED BY
>> >THE GOVERNMENT (OR ACTUALLY IS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT). LOOK HOW
>> >ENGLAND AND FRANCE HAVE IMPROVED THEIR ECONOMIES SINCE THEIR CENTRAL
>> >BANKS GAINED MORE INDEPENDENCE. LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN MESS JAPAN IS IN
>> >BECAUSE THE BOJ IS NOT INDEPENDENT.
>> >
>> >IF THERE WAS A TRUE BELIEF (AND FOR THAT MATTER REASON TO BELIEVE) THAT
>> >THE FED WAS CONTROLLED BY ANYBODY BUT THE CENTRAL BANKERS, THE DOW WOULD
>> >BE AT 5000 NO MATTER HOW LOW GREENSPAN PUT RATES. THAT IS HOW MUCH
>> >CONFIDENCE WOULD BE LOST.
>> >
>> >OH, AND THE FED IS ALSO NOT CONTROLLED BY WALL STREET. IF IT IS GOING IN
>> >TO SAVE STREET FIRMS, IT IS TO PREVENT A PANIC. I WAS NOT THERE IN 1929
>> >WHEN BANKS FAILED LEFT AND RIGHT. DO YOU WANT TO SEE THEM FALL LIKE
>> >DOMINOES?
>> >
>> >Remember, though how Wall Street goes, is not how the whole economy goes
>> >(did you see GDP yesterday? -- AND PLEASE DONT TELL ME THE FIGURES ARE
>> >RIGGED OR I'M GOING TO PUKE), failures are a different story. The
>> >markets are all about psychology, expectations and behavior. Nobody is
>> >better at managing that than Alan Greenspan. If it looks as if the Fed
>> >is controlled, it is only because knows how to pull the strings.
>> >
>> >Steve
>> >
>
|