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<P>RT's,</FONT><FONT face="Times New"> </P></FONT>
<P><FONT face="Times New" size=2>While I disagreed with Steve on this one issue
I have been reading Steve's commentary and prognostications for a while now.
There is fine line between being a kook and having a open mind I am not one to
believe every silly conspiracy idea that comes around. I am simply holding out
the possibility that something like this can happen especially if there is ample
motive. I doubt that the fed is literally buying and selling anything, they
wouldn't have to, a simple phone call to the right party would accomplish what
is needed. </P></FONT>
<P><FONT face="Times New" size=2>Steve posted for all here(and elsewhere) to
see, his call for the bonds to rally before this Oct. 26th pivot. Although
his(along with everyone else's) crystal ball is a bit cloudy at times I believe
that his understanding of the bond market is extraordinary. I listen carefully
to his suggestions. </P></FONT>
<P><FONT face="Times New" size=2>Brent</P></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Bob Heisler <<A
href="mailto:bheisler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>bheisler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, October 31, 1998 4:55 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: TO ALL THE
IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED,
ETC<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>Obviously one of the recent goals of the recent rate
cuts, as well as their<BR>timing, was to settle down the financial
markets. Both the stock AND bond<BR>markets. To believe that
there could be other motivating factors, political<BR>or financial in
nature, hardly classifies anyone a conspiracy nut or idiot,<BR>as you so
eloquently stated.<BR><BR>Thank you for gracing us with your humble, open
minded opinion, as well as<BR>your precious time in your moment of
weakness. I suspect these are frequent<BR>in nature. Thank you
also for your brilliant analysis of the markets. To<BR>say after the
DOW has rallied over 1,000 points in less than a month that we<BR>are closer
to a top than a bottom is pure genius.<BR><BR>My condolences to your paying
clients for such enlightened commentary.<BR>Those who can do, and those who
can't try to convince others to pay them for<BR>their supposed knowledge of
the markets (which we all know are<BR>unpredictable) since they cannot
support themselves by their trading skills.<BR><BR><BR><BR>-----Original
Message-----<BR>From: steven poser <<A
href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxx";>swp@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>To: RealTraders
Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>Date:
Saturday, October 31, 1998 12:05 PM<BR>Subject: Re: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT
THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC<BR><BR><BR>>Brent
-<BR>><BR>>I am not wearing rose colored glasses. I am amazed that
somebody<BR>>obviously as intelligent as you can believe that there is
overt<BR>>manipulation of the markets. Yes, the markets are manipulated
via<BR>>playing with our minds. Alan Greenspan plays the markets like
Yitzhak<BR>>Perlman plays a Stradivarius. As for Presidential cycles, the
ground<BR>>work is done without purchases of stocks. It is done by
spending<BR>>increases in your congressional district and by doing all
the things<BR>>that the electorate wants.<BR>><BR>>Those involved
with the street are very ego centric about the street.<BR>>While the
stock market is more important than it used to be because it<BR>>is more
widely held, a stock market drop really does not turn the<BR>>economy.
Look at 1987. True, the market rebounded, but it stayed below<BR>>the
1987 highs for over a year. Everybody thought that the economy
would<BR>>sink, but sound monetary and fiscal policy saved the day (more
monetary<BR>>than fiscal since Reagan had the IQ of a retarded squirrel,
and even if<BR>>he was a genius the Congress had the summed IQ of a
retarded squirrel).<BR>><BR>>Yes, the markets are manipulated, but
only through our minds via the<BR>>policies of the Fed and the
government. Not by the government purchasing<BR>>stocks. They do it in
Japan and Hong Kong, but this is neither.<BR>><BR>>I AM NOT GOING TO
RESPOND ANY MORE TO THESE POSTS. I DID THE ONE THIS<BR>>MORNING DURING A
MOMENT OF WEAKNESS. AS A BRILLIANT MEMBER OF THIS GROUP<BR>>SENT TO ME, I
WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE THOSE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO<BR>>BELIEVE THIS
CRAP, AND I WILL NOT LET MYSELF GET SUCKERED INTO REACTING<BR>>TO THESE
GENERAL POSTS AGAIN. (Brent - this is not aimed at
you<BR>>directly.) IF YOU WANT TO BELIEVE THIS STUFF, GREAT. HAVE
FUN. IT IS A<BR>>MATTER OF FAITH. Good luck and good trades to
all.<BR>><BR>>Steve<BR>><BR>><BR>>BrentinUtahsDixie
wrote:<BR>>><BR>>> Ah come-on Steve take off your rose colored
glasses. Can you honestly<BR>tell<BR>>> me that there has never been
efforts to manipulate the markets? Although<BR>I<BR>>> don't expect
that I will convince you of anything; as I have gotten
older<BR>I<BR>>> have realized that Murphy's law applies to all sorts
of manipulations. It<BR>>> sometimes takes 40 years to find out but it
happens all the same and<BR>allthe<BR>>> time.<BR>>><BR>>>
It would be naivete to not allow for the possibility of manipulation
in<BR>the<BR>>> markets there certainly has been manipulation in the
past. A strong rally<BR>>> just before an election (in which a
beleaguered President has much to<BR>lose)<BR>>> that began with a
mighty shove from the fed would seem to be some<BR>evidence<BR>>> to
me. Unless congress investigates we will likely never know.
Since<BR>history<BR>>> is replete with plots, manipulation and
conspiracies, I will not disallow<BR>>> the
possibility.<BR>>><BR>>> Brent<BR>>><BR>>>
-----Original Message-----<BR>>> From: steven poser <<A
href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxx";>swp@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>> To:
RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>>
Date: Saturday, October 31, 1998 8:48 AM<BR>>> Subject: TO ALL THE
IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC<BR>>><BR>>>
>I am constantly amazed at what people will believe. What I love
best<BR>>> >about folks that believe in conspiracy theories, that
the Fed buys<BR>>> >futures (Earl, though I disagree with you on
the futures purchase stuff,<BR>>> >you are obviously not in the
idiot category.)<BR>>> ><BR>>> >Alan Greenspan is the
consummate market behaviorist and technical<BR>>> >analyst. I am
not suggesting that he sits there and draws lines, looks<BR>>> >at
OBV and RSI. But, he may be the only Central Banker in the world
who<BR>>> >understands how to mollify the markets. I wrote to my
clients back<BR>>> >before the first rate cut that the Fed would go
again between meetings<BR>>> >if they only went 25 bps on 29-Sep. I
made this call based on how I<BR>>> >thought the markets would
react, and how I figured Greenspan would react<BR>>> >to that. The
day that the Fed cut again, was the first time I saw<BR>>>
>inklings of the market getting ready to turn lower. I think if the
Fed<BR>>> >had not cut then, we'd be at 6800 now and not
8600.<BR>>> ><BR>>> >Alan Greenspan almost certainly has
no great love for Bill Clinton.<BR>>> >Clinton is a Democrat and
Greenspan is a Republican. So, Alan is not<BR>>> >saving Bill. He
is not saving a Republican Congress either that sits<BR>>> >there
and asks for rate cuts also when the economy is humming along.
The<BR>>> >FED is and must be fiercely independent.<BR>>>
><BR>>> >LOOK WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A CENTRAL BANK IS BELIEVED TO BE
CONTROLLED BY<BR>>> >THE GOVERNMENT (OR ACTUALLY IS CONTROLLED BY
THE GOVERNMENT). LOOK HOW<BR>>> >ENGLAND AND FRANCE HAVE IMPROVED
THEIR ECONOMIES SINCE THEIR CENTRAL<BR>>> >BANKS GAINED MORE
INDEPENDENCE. LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN MESS JAPAN IS IN<BR>>> >BECAUSE
THE BOJ IS NOT INDEPENDENT.<BR>>> ><BR>>> >IF THERE WAS A
TRUE BELIEF (AND FOR THAT MATTER REASON TO BELIEVE) THAT<BR>>> >THE
FED WAS CONTROLLED BY ANYBODY BUT THE CENTRAL BANKERS, THE DOW
WOULD<BR>>> >BE AT 5000 NO MATTER HOW LOW GREENSPAN PUT RATES. THAT
IS HOW MUCH<BR>>> >CONFIDENCE WOULD BE LOST.<BR>>>
><BR>>> >OH, AND THE FED IS ALSO NOT CONTROLLED BY WALL STREET.
IF IT IS GOING IN<BR>>> >TO SAVE STREET FIRMS, IT IS TO PREVENT A
PANIC. I WAS NOT THERE IN 1929<BR>>> >WHEN BANKS FAILED LEFT AND
RIGHT. DO YOU WANT TO SEE THEM FALL LIKE<BR>>>
>DOMINOES?<BR>>> ><BR>>> >Remember, though how Wall
Street goes, is not how the whole economy goes<BR>>> >(did you see
GDP yesterday? -- AND PLEASE DONT TELL ME THE FIGURES ARE<BR>>>
>RIGGED OR I'M GOING TO PUKE), failures are a different story.
The<BR>>> >markets are all about psychology, expectations and
behavior. Nobody is<BR>>> >better at managing that than Alan
Greenspan. If it looks as if the Fed<BR>>> >is controlled, it is
only because knows how to pull the strings.<BR>>> ><BR>>>
>Steve<BR>>> ><BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>shj@xxxxxxxxx
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Nov 01 13:15:59 1998
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Subject: Re: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC
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The FED manipulates the market. It changes the Fed Funds rate, and the
Discount rate, it injects liquidity into and drains liquidity from the market
(per CNBC) whatever that means. Isn't that enough.
Jerry Rehert
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