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steven poser wrote:
> Ken -
>
> Funny how you complained about people bashing financial astrology and
> then you go and bash technical analysis, when the two methods are so
> tightly woven together. Arch Crawford is a full member of the Market
> Technicians Association.
Steve, I tried to reference (did twice) how we are about these things that
we no little of or scoff.
I am sorry if I gave an impression of bashing. I use TA; I integrate with
FA, but it does not negate my statements of it being illogical.
TA is definitely changing. And let me ask a dumb question? What exactly is
TA? For me, it is moving averages, stochastics, etc. It is not Neural Nets,
FA,cycles, charting, Elliot, or Gann. I do recognise that others might lump
them in together. Your answer to this might radically change my tone.
> Both forms of analysis are based on how crowds react to certain
> impulses. While TA is solely based on price, psychology, supply/demand
> and astrology is based on other things that I admittedly do not know or
> understand, I respect it as being useful. But the same reasons why that
> works, is why TA works.
>
> In fact, most central banks use technical analysis and the Fed has
> written papers saying it works. So has the London School of Economics.
> MIT is now going to accept it as being valid. It is now taught in many
> MBA programs given that random walk has been pretty much proven dead.
Thank you. How Random Walk could have lived for so long was beyond me.I
realise the backing of TA, and because of these resources behind it, ought
to move away from the non sequiturs I mentioned.
> I do not personally use financial astrology, but I do use technical
> analysis. No, I did not nail July 20 for the top, but Princeton
> Economics did w/out Zane/Bradley and Chris Carolan missed by a fairly
> large eight days (oh he is also a member of the MTA and won the Dow
> Technicians award last year though he is certainly a financial astrology
> type). And, I was short stocks a week early and stuck with it (from
> 13-July) while Bob Prechter nailed it (dont tell me about all the
> crashes that he has called that did not happen, because alot of the FA
> guys have done the same). Furthermore, I had everybody out of stocks
> that I know the Tuesday b4 the 500 point down day if they were not
> already. And, all the astrologers had last week as an up week for
> stocks. Uh-oh.
I am not going to get into who has the sharpest pencil nor am an apologist
for FA. Frankly, most FA people do not know what they are doing.
> The bottom line is there is no perfect system. They all give you
> probabilities. TA does. FA does. Fundamentals even sometimes help too!
> There is no holy grail (or if there was, the person who has it ain't
> telling, I know I wouldn't)
>
Again, I was defending soemthing that gets a very bad and undeserved rap
from people who know nothing of it and won't even try it or honestly
investigate it.
Thanks for this reply, it was honest, kept me honest and I learned
something.
Ken
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