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Incredible!!
It is 10:50 pm est (09/07/98) Monday night. Here are the Globex stats..
GLOBEX PRICES AS OF 09/07/98 09:45 PM TRADE DATE: 09/08/98
CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE CONTRACT LAST NET
CHGE
S&P 500 SEP98 997.30 +2130 EURO $ SEP98 94.445
-1.5
E-MINI SEP98 997.50 +2150 DEC98 94.65
+1.5
DEC98 1007.00A +2125 MAR99 94.83
+2.5
NSDQ100 SEP98 1234.75 +3000 JUN99 94.835
+2
GSCI OCT98 146.00P ---- SEP99 94.835B
+3
*************************************************
Here is an excerpt from Steven Williams copywrite 1998
Webpage.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/Temp/US298798.htm
"The third subwave is not going to be a simple snowball pushed over
the edge of a cliff. Rather, there will be
extremely high volatility for the entire crash week. If the
timing is right, this crash will likely become known as the
"1998 'Labor Day' Crash" (let me be the first to coin that
phrase).
In 1929, the 5 days of the third crash subwave saw the daily
high/low range go from 3% to 15% each day --
three of the five day ranges were more than 10% swings, and
the retracement rally (see Wave 4 of 3, below) was
13%! In 1987, the 4 days of the third crash wave saw the
daily high/low range go from 3% to 22% each day, and
the retracement rally (Wave 4 of 3) was 26%! To put this in
perspective, 1998 SP500 futures contracts could
make or lose $52,000 per contract in a 10% swing from
current levels. Two to three days should fall into the
NYSE range for temporary mid-day shutdown (see CME Daily
Limits). This could be a day-trader's dream or
their worst nightmare.
In 1929 there were 2 days with open gaps down over 2% and
1987 had 1 day that opened gap down 3.5%.
Conservatively, I am looking for a total drop for the third
crash wave of at least 270 (SPX) points, but perhaps as
many as 600 points without government intervention. That
would certainly fall into the "Crash" category!"
It wasn't until I let the volatility ranges sink in that I realized we
may go up 100+ points tomorrow and still "crash" this week.
That is where the notion "the market will do what ever it has to to
fool most of the people most of the time".
Regards,
Gary
--Jim Kramer <jhkramer@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> In an earlier post, I drew a conclusion based on my
misinterpretation of
> the information on this site (recommended by Bud Napier):
>
>
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/Temp/US298798.htm
>
> I read the charts at that site as saying that the next wave could, by
> analogy, produce a drop of about 40%. Instead it would take us to
about
> 40% down from the high. More precisely, the numbers are 45% for 1929,
> and 41% for 1987. That gives the following targets, by analogy:
>
>
> DJIA OEX
> High
> 9338 581
> After 41% drop (1987 analogy) 5509 343
> After 45% drop (1929 analogy) 5136 320
>
> I recommend this site. The analogy is pretty remarkable, especially
the
> durations of the waves. If the analogy continues, tomorrow should be
> down a lot, because the big wave we are in only has about three more
> days to run.
>
> Jim
>
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