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Based on your chart I'd say that the Dow will go down 41.97 today:-)
Seriously, mostly all that can be determined from these charts is analigous
pattern developement. Which is a very iffy thing. How many broken shoulder
formations have I/you seen? Still sometimes they fit like a glove.
I'm still trying to figure out what values your extensions are based on.
After the 100% level the lines look like they are equal distance apart. I
personally like extensions based on fibonacci numbers such as 1.38, 1.62,
2.62, 4.25, and 6.85. Like all guestamations there are many different
extension values that a possible but I think that these are among the most
accepted.
Maybe 22848 will never be reached. The future has many possibilities. If
you were in pre-communist Russia would you have guessed that securitiy
markets would disapear for what like about 50-60 years?
Best Regards,
Brent
----------
> From: Richard Parsons <richard.p.parsons@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx; RealTraders Discussion Group
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: MKT - waterfall decline again?
> Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 9:50 AM
>
> Here is my chart of the Dow Jones Index 1901-1971; monthly bars
constructed
> from daily closing values.
>
> This shows that the 'waterfall effect' was followed by a strong rally
from
> the double bottom at about 42, separated by 29 years.
>
> The retracement tool is configured to show levels that are in the same
ratio
> as the percentage value from the low on Monday 9th November 1903 (42) and
> the high on Monday 3rd November 1919 (120).
>
> These levels are at 343, 980, 2799, 7997 and 22848.
>
> 343 was reached in July 1929
> 980 was reached in January 1966
> 2799 was reached in October 1989
> 7997 was reached in July 1997.
>
> Would anyone on this list care to hazard a guess as to when 22848 will be
> reached?
>
> Also does anyone see anything significant on this chart that might help
> define a level, or help with market timing, to determine market direction
> today?
>
> I must confess that I find it difficult to draw any meaningful
conclusions
> from this chart.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: 03 September 1998 23:04
> Subject: MKT - waterfall decline again?
>
>
> >Recently, someone asked me about the DJIA 17-32 retracement chart I
posted
> here
> >a couple of months ago and I zoomed in for a closeup of the top, then
> compared
> >it to a weekly line chart of the current top. Then I switched over and
> zoomed in
> >on the Nikkei in Dec 90-Feb 91. In both cases, there was a waterfall
> decline
> >when the bottom of the first retracement was taken out. My current
> intermediate
> >and long term technical work is suggesting that the current bottom is
not
> going
> >to hold.
> >
> >Earl
> >
>
>
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