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Here is my chart of the Dow Jones Index 1901-1971; monthly bars constructed
from daily closing values.
This shows that the 'waterfall effect' was followed by a strong rally from
the double bottom at about 42, separated by 29 years.
The retracement tool is configured to show levels that are in the same ratio
as the percentage value from the low on Monday 9th November 1903 (42) and
the high on Monday 3rd November 1919 (120).
These levels are at 343, 980, 2799, 7997 and 22848.
343 was reached in July 1929
980 was reached in January 1966
2799 was reached in October 1989
7997 was reached in July 1997.
Would anyone on this list care to hazard a guess as to when 22848 will be
reached?
Also does anyone see anything significant on this chart that might help
define a level, or help with market timing, to determine market direction
today?
I must confess that I find it difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions
from this chart.
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 03 September 1998 23:04
Subject: MKT - waterfall decline again?
>Recently, someone asked me about the DJIA 17-32 retracement chart I posted
here
>a couple of months ago and I zoomed in for a closeup of the top, then
compared
>it to a weekly line chart of the current top. Then I switched over and
zoomed in
>on the Nikkei in Dec 90-Feb 91. In both cases, there was a waterfall
decline
>when the bottom of the first retracement was taken out. My current
intermediate
>and long term technical work is suggesting that the current bottom is not
going
>to hold.
>
>Earl
>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Dow12.gif"
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