|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
This is very true, there is nothing more brutal then a bear market rally, if this is
the start of one. They may crush the puts in the OEX and other index options, but
in the stock options they will explode as the calls do. the conversion and reveral
market will take care of that. I remember in one where I was putting on conversions
for a 13 pt credit. Thats how wild it got. The interesting thing to watch will be
the spq options and the spider prices. That is the only index where it might work.
Earl Adamy wrote:
> While the short and intermediate term technicals are indeed quite negative,
> almost anything positive could turn this market into a buyer's feeding frenzy as
> buckets of cash come out of hibernation. Should this occur, I would not want to
> be standing in shorts in front of the train. A convincing turn could run the Dow
> up 500-700 points in a single day, perhaps even a morning. Needless to say, put
> premiums would collapse.
>
> There's an old Kenny Rogers song with good advice: never to count your winnings
> while you're still sitting at the table.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: khanitha <charlie@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, August 29, 1998 3:41 PM
> Subject: OEX, market update..."Price Action"...
>
> >Hi rt's,
> >
> >WOW, wasn't friday's "price action" great for the shorts! the dow,spz,ndq
> >all up about 1% in the first few minutes, then immediately gave up,
> >reversed, went NEGATIVE, then could never get back above unch. on the
> >dow!!! Chalk up another great picture for the short term and long term
> >bears for that matter. I really feel friday's price action really told the
> >tale and finally tipped the scale in favor of the bears. Boy, i'm gald i
> >bought those oex puts (anticipated the anticipated anticipation). the
> >515's are finally a little in the money. (i had comments to me about how
> >the oex went in my favor but the price went down ----> who cares! I paid a
> >big premium "7" two weeks ago, i knew that going in. But because my target
> >is atleast 455-445 that will still be 60-70 in the money.)
> >I am/was thinking of taking profits by monday, now i feel it will be this
> >week, but, based on the fear factor feeding on itself, we may see a bigger
> >% drop throughout this coming week then we did last week! (BELOW the 200
> >ma, etc, etc, etc, oh, mutual fund inflows down, redemptions
> >up,.........panic will feed on itself this week combined with the
> >technicals........)
> >remember the $2,600 i started with.......
> >then in a week or so i will be buying some calls with a SMALL % of these
> >upcoming profits (for the brief wave 4)THEN loading up on MANY oct puts for
> >"October" while the sep's are STILL on the boards....(similar to last
> >months purchase, do you follow?)
> >I'll spell it out to everyone BEFORE i do it, JUST like i did last time....
> >"NOT hindsight"
> >comments welcome...
> >gary
> >hawaii
|