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While the short and intermediate term technicals are indeed quite negative,
almost anything positive could turn this market into a buyer's feeding frenzy as
buckets of cash come out of hibernation. Should this occur, I would not want to
be standing in shorts in front of the train. A convincing turn could run the Dow
up 500-700 points in a single day, perhaps even a morning. Needless to say, put
premiums would collapse.
There's an old Kenny Rogers song with good advice: never to count your winnings
while you're still sitting at the table.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: khanitha <charlie@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, August 29, 1998 3:41 PM
Subject: OEX, market update..."Price Action"...
>Hi rt's,
>
>WOW, wasn't friday's "price action" great for the shorts! the dow,spz,ndq
>all up about 1% in the first few minutes, then immediately gave up,
>reversed, went NEGATIVE, then could never get back above unch. on the
>dow!!! Chalk up another great picture for the short term and long term
>bears for that matter. I really feel friday's price action really told the
>tale and finally tipped the scale in favor of the bears. Boy, i'm gald i
>bought those oex puts (anticipated the anticipated anticipation). the
>515's are finally a little in the money. (i had comments to me about how
>the oex went in my favor but the price went down ----> who cares! I paid a
>big premium "7" two weeks ago, i knew that going in. But because my target
>is atleast 455-445 that will still be 60-70 in the money.)
>I am/was thinking of taking profits by monday, now i feel it will be this
>week, but, based on the fear factor feeding on itself, we may see a bigger
>% drop throughout this coming week then we did last week! (BELOW the 200
>ma, etc, etc, etc, oh, mutual fund inflows down, redemptions
>up,.........panic will feed on itself this week combined with the
>technicals........)
>remember the $2,600 i started with.......
>then in a week or so i will be buying some calls with a SMALL % of these
>upcoming profits (for the brief wave 4)THEN loading up on MANY oct puts for
>"October" while the sep's are STILL on the boards....(similar to last
>months purchase, do you follow?)
>I'll spell it out to everyone BEFORE i do it, JUST like i did last time....
>"NOT hindsight"
>comments welcome...
>gary
>hawaii
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