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RealTraders:
Norm Winski is experiencing a technical glitch posting to RT. He asked me to
post this for him.
Thanks,
Eddie Kwong
-----Original Message-----
From: nwinski [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 1998 12:44 AM
To: Austowne@xxxxxxx
Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: Re: SnP collapse: As sure as death and taxes....
Austowne@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Fellow Future Millionaires,
>
> Is there a saavy SnP trader out there who is not salivating
at the prospect of
> the market collapsing 200-300 points in the mother of all 3/C
waves? Given
> the inevitability of this outcome, I have a few suggestions.
1. Dispose of
> daytrading altogether; it's time to position yourself for
mom's inevitable
> visitation. 2. maximize leveraging capacity: take out a
second on the
> house, liquidate the kids' college fund, cash in the
retirement account,
> borrow off the VISA , beg, borrow and steal, to be ready to
load up on puts
> or shorts when that key reversal arrives in all its glory.
3. Stop pining
> after that house, car, boat, anything that is 90 days same as
cash. Buy it
> now! Don't postpone your dreams another moment! The future
is NOW. Who
> needs the lottery? Who needs a real job? The money's there
for the takin'.
> Take as much as you want. Mom's ready to PARTY!
>
> Or are WE there for the takin'? Will WE be the party favors?
>
> Is anyone out there as uneasy as I am about this cataclysm euphoria?
>
> Is there anyone out there looking for contract highs before
Sept expiration?
>
> Peter 2120, I can see your fingers itching to type "Who
cares....", but it IS
> food for thought. Besides, I need to know if there will be
someone out there
> to pay for my new boat.
>
> Dave,
My humble opinion is that the market is now etching out
a Wave IV ABC
correction which began April - May 1998. The A decline ended in
mid June. The B
ended with the July 17-20 high. Which means we are now in the
C Wave. My guess is
that we are currently near the bottom of wave 1 of C of WAVE
IV. The market
should have already begun a Wave 2 rally which will top on or
about September 9.
This will be followed by a sharp downward correction, but not a
major crash like
many are expecting. This correction is likely to run its
course by about October
or November. By early February 1999, we may see the US Stock
Market via the DJIA
and SPX make new all time highs.Afterall, if 1966 to 1982 was a
diagonal triangle
of 16.5 years duration, and equal time span from August 9, 1982
would be February
9, 1999. If this scenario is correct, after that high, then we
should mortgage
the farm to go short.
How to trade it? Short term, look for a 50 - 62%
retracment of the
recent decline to peak circa
September 9. At this time, if the market reaches those levels,
look to go short,
i.e. SPX 1123 or 1139.
Put a stop 500 to 1000 points above the appropriate level. Look
for a likely down
move of minimum
$136 from this SPX high, i.e circa SPX 1003 or 987.
This should keep everyone busy for a few weeks. The
funny part is that
the current rally phase
will be just enough to wipe out all those put buyers just in
time for the
September expiration before dropping like a rock. Well, let's
see how this
works. Thes timing and direction for this scenario were
Astrologically derived.
Regards,
Norman
>
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