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At 09:05 AM 8/26/98 -0700, Eddie Kwong wrote:
>RealTraders:
>
>Norm Winski is experiencing a technical glitch posting to RT. He asked me to
>post this for him.
>
>Thanks,
>Eddie Kwong
>> Dave,
>
> My humble opinion is that the market is now etching out
>a Wave IV ABC
>correction which began April - May 1998. The A decline ended in
>mid June. The B
>ended with the July 17-20 high. Which means we are now in the
>C Wave. My guess is
>that we are currently near the bottom of wave 1 of C of WAVE
>IV. The market
>should have already begun a Wave 2 rally which will top on or
>about September 9.
>This will be followed by a sharp downward correction, but not a
>major crash like
>many are expecting. This correction is likely to run its
>course by about October
>or November. By early February 1999, we may see the US Stock
>Market via the DJIA
>and SPX make new all time highs.Afterall, if 1966 to 1982 was a
>diagonal triangle
>of 16.5 years duration, and equal time span from August 9, 1982
>would be February
>9, 1999. If this scenario is correct, after that high, then we
>should mortgage
>the farm to go short.
> How to trade it? Short term, look for a 50 - 62%
>retracment of the
>recent decline to peak circa
>September 9. At this time, if the market reaches those levels,
>look to go short,
>i.e. SPX 1123 or 1139.
>Put a stop 500 to 1000 points above the appropriate level. Look
>for a likely down
>move of minimum
>$136 from this SPX high, i.e circa SPX 1003 or 987.
> This should keep everyone busy for a few weeks. The
>funny part is that
>the current rally phase
>will be just enough to wipe out all those put buyers just in
>time for the
>September expiration before dropping like a rock. Well, let's
>see how this
>works. Thes timing and direction for this scenario were
>Astrologically derived.
>
>Regards,
>
>Norman
>
Norman,
I would like to see your waves.. can you post a chart with them marked? I'm
a little confused to the way your B breaks the A high. This is not to say I
disagree... I'm becoming less bearish as every minute passes. To be
completely honest, I would have to say that we're consolidating between
1113 and the 1048 area after multiple tesats of the lows. And they say:
"Never sell a dull market." If the market grinds slowly in the range, that
could tend to build a base for the next run-up. Sorry Gary! At the moment
the most bearish sign I see is the Transportation Index, which is back to
'97 levels and that could be just weakness in the airlines.
PG
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