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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
8 / 17 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 8/10 through 8/16 on our web site.
Number of participants: 449
30 day outlook:
37 % bullish, 24% last week
45 % bearish, 54% last week
18 % neutral, 22% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 8/21: 8475 (it was 8550
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
This weeks sentiment data is the most surprising we have seen in quite some
time. With the DJIA closing DOWN 173 points on the week, bullish sentiment
jumped and bearish sentiment dropped. Bullish sentiment picked up 13% to
37%, while bearish sentiment fell 11% to 45%. This seems to be a clear cut
signal that investors are feeling complacent in the face of the 10%
correction we have had in the last month. We take this complacency as a
sign that the market has more room to drop. That said, the five week moving
average of bearish sentiment is now at 42.4% (up from 37.1%). In the past,
bearish reading over 40% have represented good buying opportunities. So if
we get that additional drop, it might set up a short term low.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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