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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
8 / 10 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 8/3 through 8/9 on our web site.
Number of participants: 341
30 day outlook:
24 % bullish, 22% last week
54 % bearish, 44% last week
22 % neutral, 34% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 8/14: 8550 (it was 8902
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
The sentiment picture was mixed last week. The bulls gained 2% to 24% in a
week that the DJIA gave up 285 points. A rise in bullishness in a week were
the Dow dropped dramatically is usually enough to sound the warning bells.
However we also saw bearishness jump 10% to 54%, one of our highest bearish
readings ever. Neutral sentiment dropped 12% to 22%, as a lot of investors
apparently made up their mind last week.
So in a nutshell the sentiment numbers could be used to make either a
bullish or bearish case. A rise in bullishness in the face of a week where
the DJIA dropped almost 300 points is worrisome for the bulls. On the other
hand, a very high bearish reading shows that we might be starting to build
up the type of fuel needed for a significant rally.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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