RE: GEN Y2K

["JW" <abprosys@xxxxxxx>]

The current issue of Wired mag has a story on how "supposedly" knowledgeable
programmer types are very worried about Y2K and are adopting a survivalist
mentality (moving out of metropolitan areas, buying guns, stocking up on
food, etc.).  Their premise is that the failure of the electric grid will be
a major source of problems, stranding some areas of the country without
power for extended periods of time.  This will cause a cascade effect across
all industries and affect everyone.  They believe that without power,
anarchy will reign.

I'm not sure that I buy this degree of extremism but perhaps shorting
electric utilities and power generators next year might not be a bad idea...

JW
abprosys@xxxxxxx <mailto:abprosys@xxxxxxx>


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Stuart Hazlewood
Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 12:12 PM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: Re: GEN Y2K


I was just musing to myself, wondering what will I, an informed and rational
market follower, do in December 1999.

I know the Y2K thing is overblown and probably won't amount to anything
serious.  And yet ...

I'll probably take my money out of the bank and liquidate all my stocks for
a couple of months JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.

And if I'm thinking about doing this, so must millions of other Americans.
JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.  Gentlemen, I do believe we are in for a rout.

Moreover, I got to thinking, well ... how best to trade that scenario.
Clearly it will be a good time to short the market or buy puts.  Maybe fly
to quality by going long the bonds.  My God .. maybe I should sell my house
and move the family into a trailer.  Then again, what about hurricanes!

And then I thought, if that's how I'm thinking about trading the scenario,
so must thousands of other speculators and money managers.

In which case, it's usually a good idea to be a contrarian.

So.  Come December 1, 1999 I'm going to buy as many S&P calls as I can
afford.

But then again ...

<snipped>