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I'm unclear on what degree of "extremism" we are talking about. To be sure
the field
of computer programmers has its cooks (how many?). Some are preparing for
self-
sufficiency for one reason or another. In one case that I heard of, there
was a plan
waiting for an excuse to get going (a generally reclusive and antisocial
example).
Most programmers, however, are pretty rational people.
The whole thing sounds like an urban myth.
However, if we get some signal and confirmation of a downward breakout in
electrics,
follow the crowd.
Pete
-----Original Message-----
From: JW <abprosys@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, July 31, 1998 11:06 PM
Subject: RE: GEN Y2K
>The current issue of Wired mag has a story on how "supposedly"
knowledgeable
>programmer types are very worried about Y2K and are adopting a survivalist
>mentality (moving out of metropolitan areas, buying guns, stocking up on
>food, etc.). Their premise is that the failure of the electric grid will
be
>a major source of problems, stranding some areas of the country without
>power for extended periods of time. This will cause a cascade effect
across
>all industries and affect everyone. They believe that without power,
>anarchy will reign.
>
>I'm not sure that I buy this degree of extremism but perhaps shorting
>electric utilities and power generators next year might not be a bad
idea...
>
>JW
>abprosys@xxxxxxx <mailto:abprosys@xxxxxxx>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>[mailto:owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Stuart Hazlewood
>Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 12:12 PM
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group
>Subject: Re: GEN Y2K
>
>
>I was just musing to myself, wondering what will I, an informed and
rational
>market follower, do in December 1999.
>
>I know the Y2K thing is overblown and probably won't amount to anything
>serious. And yet ...
>
>I'll probably take my money out of the bank and liquidate all my stocks for
>a couple of months JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.
>
>And if I'm thinking about doing this, so must millions of other Americans.
>JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. Gentlemen, I do believe we are in for a rout.
>
>Moreover, I got to thinking, well ... how best to trade that scenario.
>Clearly it will be a good time to short the market or buy puts. Maybe fly
>to quality by going long the bonds. My God .. maybe I should sell my house
>and move the family into a trailer. Then again, what about hurricanes!
>
>And then I thought, if that's how I'm thinking about trading the scenario,
>so must thousands of other speculators and money managers.
>
>In which case, it's usually a good idea to be a contrarian.
>
>So. Come December 1, 1999 I'm going to buy as many S&P calls as I can
>afford.
>
>But then again ...
>
><snipped>
>
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