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Craig - I think you make some very good points, but there are many
reasons for people having longer term views, even if you are day
trading. You are absolutely correct though, trading is heavily mental,
and you need to do your own analysis. I bought too early yesterday in
stocks because I let somebody I respect sway me instead of going with my
own analysis. Only lost a tiny bit, but then did not get in after spooz
trading halt which was my plan:
1) It is important to know what the larger trends (daily, weekly, etc)
are. If I am taking a day trade against a larger trend, I would tend to
be quicker to take profits or question any very large moves against that
trend.
2) Some types of analysis require longer term viewpoints. Elliott Wave
is one example. If I think the market is about to rally in a third wave,
even if it goes higher, I might get out if it does not do it
impulsively. This is true whether my timeframe is 15 minutes or 15 days.
3) Some people are more analyst than trader on this forum (such as me).
So we talk about our views from a longer term perspective.
4) If u r day trading, you probably do not have time to post and
describe every trade you make.
5) Everybody is focused on stocks these days. It is sexy. They might be
forming an historic top, so all have an opinion on it. Interestingly.
almost everybody was bearish yesterday, making almost everybody correct.
Steve
Craig Smith wrote:
>
> Greetings Real Traders,
>
> I have been reading, and observing the Posts made by Real Traders for about
> 5 months now, along with the Market predictions, different formulas, i.e.
> charts, lines, forks etc., and not only do I find allot of conflicting
> ideas, I truly do not see any consistency in any of these ideas!
>
> What I am trying to say is that by observation, one will say the market is
> going up, and the other will say the market is going down, all according to
> someone's interpretation.
>
> Today was a great example for me, not to listen to anyone, but to trade
> one's own system or formula, and not get involved in what other Traders
> think!
>
> Today in the news, Clinton was on the hot seat, Traders panicked, and th
> DJIA went South big time! This news had nothing to do with charts, ideas,
> speculation or otherwise. It was a reaction to nothing more than
> uncertainty of what is going to happen, if he (Billary) should be found to
> be a liar! (Like he isn't)
>
> You know he "didn't inhale", so why worry?
>
> What I am trying to say is, as a daytrader in the currencies, all the major
> currencies went North big time, I made alot of money, because I traded on my
> formula which deals with minute by minute trades. If I was trading on a
> long term basis, watching the markets go up and down, I would have a big
> time ulcer. I get in and out, go to bed, wake up the next morning and do it
> again. I just do not understand, how anyone, even with charts and
> indicators, can predict the future of any market? Daily circumstances
> change, minute by minute!
>
> The reason for this post is to ask a simple question? Since most traders
> lose money over the long run (I have read about 80-90%,) why so much
> speculation on Long term predictions? That is all it is, a prediction, and
> not reality!
>
> Please do not take me wrong, I just do not understand all of this
> mumbo-jumbo!!! Trading to me is just like a game of Golf, 90% is between
> your ears (mental), and 10% is actually physical. In trading, it is able to
> execute your formula at the right place and time, without any outside
> interference or hesitation. Like golf, when you have to worry about keeping
> your head down, left arm straight, rotate the hips, turn the hands over
> etc., you lose your innate ability to just swing the club, your mind does
> crazy things, and you hit the ball fat, slice, or hook. It is hard enough to
> deal with market swings on a minute by minute basis, let alone on a weekly,
> monthly time period.
>
> What do you think Real Traders? I would love to hear from you, your
> thoughts and feedback, because that is what this forum is all about!
>
> Craig
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