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Greetings Real Traders,
I have been reading, and observing the Posts made by Real Traders for about
5 months now, along with the Market predictions, different formulas, i.e.
charts, lines, forks etc., and not only do I find allot of conflicting
ideas, I truly do not see any consistency in any of these ideas!
What I am trying to say is that by observation, one will say the market is
going up, and the other will say the market is going down, all according to
someone's interpretation.
Today was a great example for me, not to listen to anyone, but to trade
one's own system or formula, and not get involved in what other Traders
think!
Today in the news, Clinton was on the hot seat, Traders panicked, and th
DJIA went South big time! This news had nothing to do with charts, ideas,
speculation or otherwise. It was a reaction to nothing more than
uncertainty of what is going to happen, if he (Billary) should be found to
be a liar! (Like he isn't)
You know he "didn't inhale", so why worry?
What I am trying to say is, as a daytrader in the currencies, all the major
currencies went North big time, I made alot of money, because I traded on my
formula which deals with minute by minute trades. If I was trading on a
long term basis, watching the markets go up and down, I would have a big
time ulcer. I get in and out, go to bed, wake up the next morning and do it
again. I just do not understand, how anyone, even with charts and
indicators, can predict the future of any market? Daily circumstances
change, minute by minute!
The reason for this post is to ask a simple question? Since most traders
lose money over the long run (I have read about 80-90%,) why so much
speculation on Long term predictions? That is all it is, a prediction, and
not reality!
Please do not take me wrong, I just do not understand all of this
mumbo-jumbo!!! Trading to me is just like a game of Golf, 90% is between
your ears (mental), and 10% is actually physical. In trading, it is able to
execute your formula at the right place and time, without any outside
interference or hesitation. Like golf, when you have to worry about keeping
your head down, left arm straight, rotate the hips, turn the hands over
etc., you lose your innate ability to just swing the club, your mind does
crazy things, and you hit the ball fat, slice, or hook. It is hard enough to
deal with market swings on a minute by minute basis, let alone on a weekly,
monthly time period.
What do you think Real Traders? I would love to hear from you, your
thoughts and feedback, because that is what this forum is all about!
Craig
-----Original Message-----
From: dbtg <dbtg@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 6:59 PM
Subject: Re: MKT SymWave Update SPU8 7/28/98
>A totally unscientific observation, even trivial, but interesting :
>The 'buy the dips' crowd has collided with the 'sell the rallies'
>crowd, I still believe the longs will prevail this time. In any case,
>I think this portends violent action ahead, it's war!
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: G.John Boggio <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 6:23 AM
>Subject: MKT SymWave Update SPU8 7/28/98
>
>
>>Realtraders,
>>
>>About two weeks ago I posted a message titled, "MKT SymWave for the SPU8
>7/16/98 Part 1" in which I gave a complete symmetrical wave analysis of the
>S&P market index. In that post, I indicated that I was following a wave
>magnitude that measured 55.7 points (based on the S&P Futures contract,
>SPU8). I have enclosed a snipit of that post directly below:
>>
>>With that said, let's look at chart SYST716D, a 15 minute chart. Let's
>begin with the Wave 'a' high on 6/10/98 at 1139.70. The wave 'b' low
>occurred on 6/15 at 1084.00. This decline measures 55.7 points and if we
>calculate the leeway, we get a range of 44.56 - 66.84 points. Therefore,
>considering that the SPU8 has rallied over 100 points from its June low, it
>is not to unrealistic to expect that our next decline of any significance
>could/should fall within our symmetrical target of 55.7 point +/- 11.14
>points. Further, if you add this 55 point move to the TOP of the Wave 'a'
>high, you get approximately 1195 on the SPU8 and suggests that this current
>rally is close to exhaustion. Thus, if this market does not go much higher
>than our closing high of today (7/16/98 at 1193.50), and a decline ensued,
a
>55 point symmetrical decline plus our leeway, would take us back to
>approximately the 1148.94 to 1126.66 on this contract. Further, I have
>included a Fibonacci retracement scale on this chart and it too indicates a
>50% Fib retracement at the 1138 level. Combine this with classical chart
>formation analysis of old highs acting as new support levels and again we
>have confluence in the 1140 area. Finally, since this rally has been
>extremely strong, I would be a buyer as soon as the market declined to the
>minimum leeway area so as not to miss the next leg up, thus forming a Wave
>'d' bottom and a new go long entry signal (near the 1150 area which also
has
>a 38% Fibonacci support level associated with it).
>>
>>In the above snipit, I stated, at that time, the current high was 1193.50
>and based my calculations on that number. As we now know, the market put in
>its high a day and a half later at the 1199.40 level. Therefore, all we
>would have to do is recalculate our target zone based on that new high.
>Simply, 1199.40 - 55.7 = 1143.70. Note our leeway of 11.15 points does not
>change and therefore, we get a recalculated target zone on the SPU8 of
>1154.85 to 1132.55.
>>
>>I
>
>
>
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