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Craig,
Wonderful insight. I find it help full to say little or nothing about
markets
that I am involved in, as I can easily distract myself by seeing someone's
analysis
using DT with some nonsense. I too have seen account growth in the
currencies today.
I find it helpful to listen to the quiet inner voice sometimes and do what
I know to be worthwhile.
RM
At 11:40 AM 7/29/98 -0700, Craig Smith wrote:
>Greetings Real Traders,
>
>I have been reading, and observing the Posts made by Real Traders for about
>5 months now, along with the Market predictions, different formulas, i.e.
>charts, lines, forks etc., and not only do I find allot of conflicting
>ideas, I truly do not see any consistency in any of these ideas!
>
>What I am trying to say is that by observation, one will say the market is
>going up, and the other will say the market is going down, all according to
>someone's interpretation.
>
>Today was a great example for me, not to listen to anyone, but to trade
>one's own system or formula, and not get involved in what other Traders
>think!
>
>Today in the news, Clinton was on the hot seat, Traders panicked, and th
>DJIA went South big time! This news had nothing to do with charts, ideas,
>speculation or otherwise. It was a reaction to nothing more than
>uncertainty of what is going to happen, if he (Billary) should be found to
>be a liar! (Like he isn't)
>
>You know he "didn't inhale", so why worry?
>
>What I am trying to say is, as a daytrader in the currencies, all the major
>currencies went North big time, I made alot of money, because I traded on my
>formula which deals with minute by minute trades. If I was trading on a
>long term basis, watching the markets go up and down, I would have a big
>time ulcer. I get in and out, go to bed, wake up the next morning and do it
>again. I just do not understand, how anyone, even with charts and
>indicators, can predict the future of any market? Daily circumstances
>change, minute by minute!
>
>The reason for this post is to ask a simple question? Since most traders
>lose money over the long run (I have read about 80-90%,) why so much
>speculation on Long term predictions? That is all it is, a prediction, and
>not reality!
>
>Please do not take me wrong, I just do not understand all of this
>mumbo-jumbo!!! Trading to me is just like a game of Golf, 90% is between
>your ears (mental), and 10% is actually physical. In trading, it is able to
>execute your formula at the right place and time, without any outside
>interference or hesitation. Like golf, when you have to worry about keeping
>your head down, left arm straight, rotate the hips, turn the hands over
>etc., you lose your innate ability to just swing the club, your mind does
>crazy things, and you hit the ball fat, slice, or hook. It is hard enough to
>deal with market swings on a minute by minute basis, let alone on a weekly,
>monthly time period.
>
>What do you think Real Traders? I would love to hear from you, your
>thoughts and feedback, because that is what this forum is all about!
>
>Craig
>
>
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: dbtg <dbtg@xxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 6:59 PM
>Subject: Re: MKT SymWave Update SPU8 7/28/98
>
>
>>A totally unscientific observation, even trivial, but interesting :
>>The 'buy the dips' crowd has collided with the 'sell the rallies'
>>crowd, I still believe the longs will prevail this time. In any case,
>>I think this portends violent action ahead, it's war!
>>
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: G.John Boggio <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
>>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 6:23 AM
>>Subject: MKT SymWave Update SPU8 7/28/98
>>
>>
>>>Realtraders,
>>>
>>>About two weeks ago I posted a message titled, "MKT SymWave for the SPU8
>>7/16/98 Part 1" in which I gave a complete symmetrical wave analysis of the
>>S&P market index. In that post, I indicated that I was following a wave
>>magnitude that measured 55.7 points (based on the S&P Futures contract,
>>SPU8). I have enclosed a snipit of that post directly below:
>>>
>>>With that said, let's look at chart SYST716D, a 15 minute chart. Let's
>>begin with the Wave 'a' high on 6/10/98 at 1139.70. The wave 'b' low
>>occurred on 6/15 at 1084.00. This decline measures 55.7 points and if we
>>calculate the leeway, we get a range of 44.56 - 66.84 points. Therefore,
>>considering that the SPU8 has rallied over 100 points from its June low, it
>>is not to unrealistic to expect that our next decline of any significance
>>could/should fall within our symmetrical target of 55.7 point +/- 11.14
>>points. Further, if you add this 55 point move to the TOP of the Wave 'a'
>>high, you get approximately 1195 on the SPU8 and suggests that this current
>>rally is close to exhaustion. Thus, if this market does not go much higher
>>than our closing high of today (7/16/98 at 1193.50), and a decline ensued,
>a
>>55 point symmetrical decline plus our leeway, would take us back to
>>approximately the 1148.94 to 1126.66 on this contract. Further, I have
>>included a Fibonacci retracement scale on this chart and it too indicates a
>>50% Fib retracement at the 1138 level. Combine this with classical chart
>>formation analysis of old highs acting as new support levels and again we
>>have confluence in the 1140 area. Finally, since this rally has been
>>extremely strong, I would be a buyer as soon as the market declined to the
>>minimum leeway area so as not to miss the next leg up, thus forming a Wave
>>'d' bottom and a new go long entry signal (near the 1150 area which also
>has
>>a 38% Fibonacci support level associated with it).
>>>
>>>In the above snipit, I stated, at that time, the current high was 1193.50
>>and based my calculations on that number. As we now know, the market put in
>>its high a day and a half later at the 1199.40 level. Therefore, all we
>>would have to do is recalculate our target zone based on that new high.
>>Simply, 1199.40 - 55.7 = 1143.70. Note our leeway of 11.15 points does not
>>change and therefore, we get a recalculated target zone on the SPU8 of
>>1154.85 to 1132.55.
>>>
>>>I
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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