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What I haven't seen yet is evidence of a true upside exhaustion. It seems
to me that there should be an extreme exhaustion because of the scale of
this bull market. In my opinion the next crises will be a debt crises. The
U.S. Government hasn't paid off any debt yet. It's just as big as it ever
was. Also private debt is greater then ever. Good times can paint a happy
face on this ugly situation by when it rains the paint will run off.
If or when this all happens the impact will shake many investors to their
roots. I have some understanding of this because my father went through
such a crises when the market slumped in the 70's. I was just a teenager
but I was there to see it all as my father went from being a millionaire to
broke and jobless in a matter of months. Yes, he would be the first to tell
you that he made mistakes. He believed reports from his own company that
they had “built in earnings for years”. One day it was worth $50 per share,
within days it was worth less then $9. He lost his home, cars, everything.
No tears. He went to work and built his life back. I suspect that most Real
Traders would do better in a crash then the average guy because they may
understand better then most that you must protect yourself and your
capitol. The real challange would be if safe places failed too. Like banks.
Brent
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