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> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Dennis L. Conn
> Sent: Tuesday, July 14, 1998 9:09 PM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: Re: MKT - DOW, and the next ten years
>
>
> Hi Bruce,
>
> I have to agree with the logic evident in your posts below, IF the
> underlying assumptions on which they're based are strong enough to support
> them. I'm not here to argue against them, but it makes me wonder if the
> points you make have made classical technical analysis a thing of
> the past.
In the short run TA can work very well, in my opinion, on individual stocks
and futures. In the long run, a buy and hold strategy for the US stock
market is virtually unbeatable for the next ten years. Open an account with
a dirt-cheap online firm like Datek, buy as many SPYders as you can afford,
and forget about the money.
> I have a
> hard time grasping what would seem to be backward thinking (even
> though I'm
> guilty of it myself at times), so all I really want to know is this: am I
> wasting my freakin' time studying Elliott because regulation and changed
> market/social conditions have stifled it's application, or is it just a
> matter of time before it's proven correct? Or, is Prechter's
> labeling wrong
> and is he insane after years of screaming "Bear!"?
All Elliot Wave bears will continue to be wrong for at least ten years.
Unless Social Security is privatized, they have a good chance of being right
after then. When enough boomers start taking money out of the market to
cover their retirement costs, the laws of supply and demand dictate the
market must fall, unless a significantly large pool of money emerges to buy
the shares being sold.
Bruce
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