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In a message dated 98-07-02 00:57:59 EDT, tinyeung@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> The real reason that I started this topic is not on fairness--it is on
> probability. In equity market, as long as the market goes up, everyone
> makes money and you don't have to worry about probability. In derivative >
> market, since it is a zero sum game, you have to do better than 0.5
probability
> of success to make money. Actually, the task is much harder, considering
> commissions, bid-> ask spread, and quality of the fill. So, from a trader's
> perspective, in long run, I wonder if it is too big a task to have a
higher than 0.5
> probability of success AFTER adjusting commisions, bid-ask spread, quality
> of the fill AND income tax.
Mervin
Still don't think the tax thing is an issue. Probablilitly of
success is probably no different. Function of how well you learn the one you
chose. To me futures give me a big advantage. 1st. Equally easy to trade
the downside as the upside. No shortsale rules to contend with. 2nd.
Commissions. Much cheaper on futures. Fills are no better or worse with the
futures, and with stocks. Just part of the cost of doing business.
Brokerage can be a big factor in this. To me the thing is to pick the area
you like for whatever reason, learn it well, and don't worry side issues. Way
I look at it is if I am making money, I don't really care, and if I am not,
then I have a bigger problem.
Pete
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