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There is an interesting analogy: Japan takes the place of
reparations-paying Germany; global deflation affects both
commodity-based economies AND export based economies; US seen as safe
haven, as in 1928
I believe, however, that the US crash preceded the bank failures in
1929.
BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>
> This is a very interesting point. I'm not sure that the bank failures in
> Australia preceded the 1929 crash although the PBS show about the Great
> Depression did say that the Australian Banks were first to fail, I jumped
> to the conclusion that they preceded the crash. No one has come up with an
> actual date as yet.
>
> If the failure of the Banks in Australia was because the economy of
> Australia was/is closely related to the price of commodities I don't know.
> I was thinking of the bank failures in Indonesia. Lets say that the
> situation over there gets worse and finally the second largest economy in
> the world(Japan) fell into depression. That could be the impetus for a
> world wide collapse. That scenario would be a sort of repeat of history
> with Indonesia replacing Australia as the first to go.
>
> I am not betting the farm on this scenario or anything right now but if the
> smart money works like I think it does there are indications of trouble. If
> I were a large investor and I looked around saw this kind of trouble out
> there I would be shifting my portfolio out of securities and at the same
> time I would be bidding higher and higher prices for securities with a
> smaller and smaller percent of my portfolio. It is my opinion that this is
> what happens at extreme market peaks in all securities. Feel free to
> correct me if anyone KNOWS better.
>
> Best Regards,
>
> Brent
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