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Earl and group,
This is a very interesting point. I'm not sure that the bank failures in
Australia preceded the 1929 crash although the PBS show about the Great
Depression did say that the Australian Banks were first to fail, I jumped
to the conclusion that they preceded the crash. No one has come up with an
actual date as yet.
If the failure of the Banks in Australia was because the economy of
Australia was/is closely related to the price of commodities I don't know.
I was thinking of the bank failures in Indonesia. Lets say that the
situation over there gets worse and finally the second largest economy in
the world(Japan) fell into depression. That could be the impetus for a
world wide collapse. That scenario would be a sort of repeat of history
with Indonesia replacing Australia as the first to go.
I am not betting the farm on this scenario or anything right now but if the
smart money works like I think it does there are indications of trouble. If
I were a large investor and I looked around saw this kind of trouble out
there I would be shifting my portfolio out of securities and at the same
time I would be bidding higher and higher prices for securities with a
smaller and smaller percent of my portfolio. It is my opinion that this is
what happens at extreme market peaks in all securities. Feel free to
correct me if anyone KNOWS better.
Best Regards,
Brent
----------
> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Historical Question - about the 1929 market crash.
> Date: Sunday, June 14, 1998 6:51 AM
>
> Perhaps someone else will have an answer to your question, however the
> interesting part might be why. It's my understanding that Australia's
economy is
> highly correlated to commodities and commodity deflation would appear to
be a
> _major_ threat to such economies. With commodity deflation as a starting
point,
> a few missteps by the government/central bank might have severe
consequences.
> Certainly the currencies of such countries (e.g. Australia, Canada,
Chile) have
> not done well recently.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: BrentinUtahsDixie <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, June 12, 1998 7:04 PM
> Subject: Gen: Historical Question - about the 1929 market crash.
>
>
> >RT's,
> >
> >I have heard from the program on PBS that the Australian Banks were the
> >first to fall before the Great 1929 Market crash. Do any of you history
> >buffs know exactly when that happened? Thanks.
> >
> >Brent
> >
>
>
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