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Some excellent points were made here by Peter about the price activity
in the Oct-Jan timeframe. They pretty much fit in with my thinking.
Beyond that I have no idea, as you need to integrate this chart in
with higher timeframes to get a gauge on wave count possibilities and
expectations, something I have not done.
Adrian Pitt
http://www.macquarie.com.au/menu/mnu32.htm
><<Here's my current interpretations of the S&P 500. It is in the process of
>bottoming out. Thereafter, it will head for its fifth wave of the primary
>degree.>>
>
>Jeff,
>
>Thanks for contributing the Graph of the S&P 500. My dates are pretty close
>to yours, for the impulse wave in red, from January 98 to Late March or early
>April. I agree that is an impulse wave.
>
>I actually think that is wave 1 of the move out of the six-month consolidation
>from last year, and everything since April is all or part of wave 2. I have
>this labeled as Intermediate Degree.
>
>I have to agree with the message suggesting that the lack of "alternation" may
>be a hindrance to this count. Alternation is extremely important, and I don't
>think it can be excused away, even with very small degree waves.
>
>I had thought about starting an impulse wave where you have (1) in white, but
>the move up from last October to December appears to be a clear three-wave
>move. Even if it is not, what would probably be waves 1 and 4 seem to overlap.
>The critical point however is that wave 1 (an impulse wave) was unable to
>break through the upper trendline of the correction that had been ongoing
>since August 98. When a new counter trend move starts, it always breaks
>trendlines. If it isn't strong enough to do that, then the ongoing move has
>not ended. I think the place to start the impulse wave is January 98.
>
>Elliott wave analysis is tough stuff. I never get stuck to one count because
>it is not the count that is important, but the direction a particular scenario
>implies. Your scenario is different than mine, and there are other scenarios
>quite plausible also, but the important thing to note is that your scenario
>and mine both call for a move to the upside. Mine more than yours of course,
>but initially they both point up, and there is profit to be made when an
>overwhelming number of scenarios point in the same direction, even if they
>diverge down the road at some later time.
>
>Short term I hope we go down a bit more. We don't have to. I have the
>minimum requirement now for a completed C wave down from 5/21. I have a
>Nature's Pulse pivot date for next Tuesday/Wednesday, so it would be nice to
>keep dropping into that date, but whatever the exact date, I agree with you,
>we are going up.
>
>The Nature's Pulse graph and count details are available at the site address
>below.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Peter
>http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm
>
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