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<<Here's my current interpretations of the S&P 500. It is in the process of
bottoming out. Thereafter, it will head for its fifth wave of the primary
degree.>>
Jeff,
Thanks for contributing the Graph of the S&P 500. My dates are pretty close
to yours, for the impulse wave in red, from January 98 to Late March or early
April. I agree that is an impulse wave.
I actually think that is wave 1 of the move out of the six-month consolidation
from last year, and everything since April is all or part of wave 2. I have
this labeled as Intermediate Degree.
I have to agree with the message suggesting that the lack of "alternation" may
be a hindrance to this count. Alternation is extremely important, and I don't
think it can be excused away, even with very small degree waves.
I had thought about starting an impulse wave where you have (1) in white, but
the move up from last October to December appears to be a clear three-wave
move. Even if it is not, what would probably be waves 1 and 4 seem to overlap.
The critical point however is that wave 1 (an impulse wave) was unable to
break through the upper trendline of the correction that had been ongoing
since August 98. When a new counter trend move starts, it always breaks
trendlines. If it isn't strong enough to do that, then the ongoing move has
not ended. I think the place to start the impulse wave is January 98.
Elliott wave analysis is tough stuff. I never get stuck to one count because
it is not the count that is important, but the direction a particular scenario
implies. Your scenario is different than mine, and there are other scenarios
quite plausible also, but the important thing to note is that your scenario
and mine both call for a move to the upside. Mine more than yours of course,
but initially they both point up, and there is profit to be made when an
overwhelming number of scenarios point in the same direction, even if they
diverge down the road at some later time.
Short term I hope we go down a bit more. We don't have to. I have the
minimum requirement now for a completed C wave down from 5/21. I have a
Nature's Pulse pivot date for next Tuesday/Wednesday, so it would be nice to
keep dropping into that date, but whatever the exact date, I agree with you,
we are going up.
The Nature's Pulse graph and count details are available at the site address
below.
Cheers,
Peter
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm
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