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At 07:43 PM 4/13/98 -0600, Jeff Walker wrote:
>Pete,
>
>>As I said before, I find really reliable (some must be read
>>in contrarian way) in the scores published in Barrons. Consensus
>>Inc's score has gone from the 60's Bullish reading all the way to
>>80 for the last week! None of Barrons' other indicators really
>>confirm (rise in trading volume, odd lot buying, odd lot shorting,
>>M2 money supply jump, AAII, etc. But they are all on the somewhat
>>bullish side.
>>
>>Your survey indicates lessening of bullish sentiment. I don't get it.
>>
>>If your 33 is high, where is moderate and low? Maybe things just
>>seem out of what but maybe they really jibe?
>
>It seems that my numbers jump around much more and are probably more useful
>on a very short time horizon compared to the Barron's et al. As far as 33%
>being high, that is for the nuetral number. I have only been doing this for
>49 weeks, so far the highest neutral reading is 40% on 2/1. There have been
>five readings above 33%. The lowest reading has been 12.8% on 3/22.
>
>I generally approach the numbers as being useful for the coming week. And
>the usefulness varies. That 64% bullish reading on 4/5 was certainly
>timely. This weeks numbers don't tell me as much. For a longer term
>reading, I use a 4 week moving average.
>
>best,
>Jeff
>
>jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>http://www.lowrisk.com
>
Jeff:
Thanks.
Those numbers were hard for me to apply also. Consensus Inc's 80%
bullish, however, may be the first of several way too high signs.
I will stay tuned.
Getting defensive,
PeteNa
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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