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At 10:36 PM 4/12/98 -0600, Jeff Walker wrote:
>
>
>Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
>survey was taken from 4/6/98 through 4/12/98 on our web site.
>
>Number of participants: 393
>
>30 day outlook:
>
>41% bullish, 64% last week
>26% bearish, 11% last week
>33% neutral, 25% last week
>
>(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
>
>Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 4/17: 9022 (it was
>8983 last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
><http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
>
>Bullish sentiment 23% to 41% this week. Bearish sentiment increased 15%
>this week. The neutral camp gained 8% to 33%.
>
>It is difficult to draw much of a conclusion from this week's numbers. Last
>week bullishness was extreme and gave us a very strong clue about the
>impending market weakness. But this week really does not provide as much to
>work with. A drop in bullishness and gain in bearishness is to be expected
>given the drop last week. As we have mentioned in the past, we do see some
>possible correlation between high neutral readings and impending market
>volatility. And we would definitely consider 33% to be a high reading.
>
>best regards,
>Jeff Walker
>
>
>jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>http://www.lowrisk.com
>
Jeff:
As I said before, I find really reliable (some must be read
in contrarian way) in the scores published in Barrons. Consensus
Inc's score has gone from the 60's Bullish reading all the way to
80 for the last week! None of Barrons' other indicators really
confirm (rise in trading volume, odd lot buying, odd lot shorting,
M2 money supply jump, AAII, etc. But they are all on the somewhat
bullish side.
Your survey indicates lessening of bullish sentiment. I don't get it.
If your 33 is high, where is moderate and low? Maybe things just
seem out of what but maybe they really jibe?
tradingly,
PeteNa
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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