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Pete,
>As I said before, I find really reliable (some must be read
>in contrarian way) in the scores published in Barrons. Consensus
>Inc's score has gone from the 60's Bullish reading all the way to
>80 for the last week! None of Barrons' other indicators really
>confirm (rise in trading volume, odd lot buying, odd lot shorting,
>M2 money supply jump, AAII, etc. But they are all on the somewhat
>bullish side.
>
>Your survey indicates lessening of bullish sentiment. I don't get it.
>
>If your 33 is high, where is moderate and low? Maybe things just
>seem out of what but maybe they really jibe?
It seems that my numbers jump around much more and are probably more useful
on a very short time horizon compared to the Barron's et al. As far as 33%
being high, that is for the nuetral number. I have only been doing this for
49 weeks, so far the highest neutral reading is 40% on 2/1. There have been
five readings above 33%. The lowest reading has been 12.8% on 3/22.
I generally approach the numbers as being useful for the coming week. And
the usefulness varies. That 64% bullish reading on 4/5 was certainly
timely. This weeks numbers don't tell me as much. For a longer term
reading, I use a 4 week moving average.
best,
Jeff
jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.lowrisk.com
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